雷曼破产论文英文参考文献

Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. (Pink Sheets: LEHMQ) (pronounced IPA: /ˈliːmən/) was a global financial-services firm active prior to its bankruptcy and sale in 2008. The firm did business in investment banking, equity and fixed-income sales, research and trading, investment management, private equity, and private banking. It was a primary dealer in the . Treasury securities market. Its primary subsidiaries included Lehman Brothers Inc., Neuberger Berman Inc., Aurora Loan Services, Inc., SIB Mortgage Corporation, Lehman Brothers Bank, FSB, Eagle Energy Partners, and the Crossroads Group. The firm's worldwide headquarters were in New York City, with regional headquarters in London and Tokyo, as well as offices located throughout the September 15, 2008, the firm filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection; the filing marks the largest bankruptcy in . history.[2] The following day, Barclays plc announced its agreement to purchase, subject to regulatory approval, Lehman's North American investment-banking and trading divisions along with its New York headquarters building.[3][4] On September 20, 2008, a revised version of that agreement was approved by Judge James Peck.[5]On September 22, 2008, Nomura Holdings, Inc. announced it agreed to acquire Lehman Brothers' franchise in the Asia Pacific region including Japan and Australia.[6] The following day, Nomura announced its intentions to acquire Lehman Brothers' investment banking and equities businesses in Europe and the Middle East. A few weeks later it was announced that conditions to the deal had been met, and the deal became legally effective on Monday, 13 October.[7] In 2007, non-US subsidiaries of Lehman Brothers were responsible for over 50% of global revenue [edit] Under the Lehman family (1850–1969)In 1844, 23-year-old Henry Lehman,[9] the son of a cattle merchant, emigrated to the United States from Rimpar, Bavaria.[10] He settled in Montgomery, Alabama,[9] where he opened a dry-goods store, "H. Lehman".[11] In 1847, following the arrival of Emanuel Lehman, the firm became "H. Lehman and Bro." [12] With the arrival of their youngest brother, Mayer Lehman, in 1850, the firm changed its name again and "Lehman Brothers" was founded.[11][13]In the 1850s Southern United States, cotton was one of the most important crops. Capitalizing on cotton's high market value, the three brothers began to routinely accept raw cotton from customers as payment for merchandise, eventually beginning a second business trading in cotton. Within a few years this business grew to become the most significant part of their operation. Following Henry's death from yellow fever in 1855,[11][14] the remaining brothers continued to focus on their commodities-trading/brokerage and Mayer LehmanBy 1858, the center of cotton trading had shifted from the South to New York City, where factors and commission houses were based. Lehman opened its first branch office in New York City's Manhattan borough at 119 Liberty Street,[14] and 32-year-old Emanuel relocated there to run the office.[11] In 1862, facing difficulties as a result of the Civil War, the firm teamed up with a cotton merchant named John Durr to form Lehman, Durr & Co.[15][16] Following the war the company helped finance Alabama's reconstruction. The firm's headquarters were eventually moved to New York City, where it helped found the New York Cotton Exchange in 1870;[14][17] Emanuel sat on the Board of Governors until 1884. The firm also dealt in the emerging market for railroad bonds and entered the financial-advisory became a member of the Coffee Exchange as early as 1883 and finally the New York Stock Exchange in 1887.[14][17] In 1899, it underwrote its first public offering, the preferred and common stock of the International Steam Pump the offering of International Steam, the firm's real shift from being a commodities house to a house of issue did not begin until 1906. In that year, under Philip Lehman, the firm partnered with Goldman, Sachs & Co.,[18][19] to bring the General Cigar Co. to market,[20] followed closely by Sears, Roebuck and Company [20]. During the following two decades, almost one hundred new issues were underwritten by Lehman, many times in conjunction with Goldman, Sachs. Among these were . Woolworth Company,[21][20] May Department Stores Company, Gimbel Brothers, Inc.,[22] . Macy & Company,[22] The Studebaker Corporation,[21] the . Goodrich Co. and Endicott Johnson H. LehmanOfficial . Senate PhotoFollowing Philip Lehman's retirement in 1925, his son Robert "Bobbie" Lehman took over as head of the firm. During Bobbie's tenure, the company weathered the capital crisis of the Great Depression by focusing on venture capital while the equities market recovered. By 1928, the firm moved to its now famous One William Street , a family-only partnership, in 1924 John M. Hancock became the first non-family member to join the firm,[18][23] followed by Monroe C. Gutman and Paul Mazur in the 1930s, Lehman underwrote the initial public offering of the first television manufacturer, DuMont, and helped fund the Radio Corporation of America (RCA).[24] It also helped finance the rapidly growing oil industry, including the companies Halliburton and PetersonIn the 1950s, Lehman underwrote the IPO of Digital Equipment Corporation. Later, it arranged the acquisition of Digital by Compaq. Robert Lehman died in 1969,[25] and since that time, no member of the Lehman family has led the company. Robert's death left a void in the company, which, coupled with a difficult economic environment, brought hard times to the firm. In 1973, Pete Peterson, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of the Bell & Howell Corporation, was brought in to save the firm.[25] [edit] Merger with American Express (1969–94)Under Peterson's leadership as Chairman and CEO, the firm acquired Abraham & Co. in 1975, and two years later merged with the venerable, but struggling, Kuhn, Loeb & Co. [25], to form Lehman Brothers, Kuhn, Loeb Inc., the country's fourth-largest investment bank, behind Salomon Brothers, Goldman Sachs and First Boston. [26] Peterson led the firm from significant operating losses to five consecutive years of record profits with a return on equity among the highest in the investment-banking Lehman/American Express LogoHowever, hostilities between the firm's investment bankers and traders (who were driving most of the firm's profits) prompted Peterson to promote Lewis Glucksman, the firm's President, COO and former trader, to be his co-CEO in May 1983. Glucksman introduced a number of changes that had the effect of increasing tensions, which when coupled with Glucksman’s management style and a downturn in the markets, resulted in a power struggle that ousted Peterson and left Glucksman as the sole CEO.[27] ,Upset bankers, who had soured over the power struggle, left the company. Steve Schwarzman, chairman of the firm's M&A committee, recalled in a February 2003 interview with Private Equity International that "Lehman Brothers had an extremely competitive internal environment, which ultimately became dysfunctional." The company suffered under the disintegration, and Glucksman was pressured into selling the firm to Shearson, an American Express-backed electronic transaction company, in 1984, for $360 million. On May 11, the combined firms became Shearson Lehman/American Express.[27] In 1988, Shearson Lehman/American Express and . Hutton & Co. merged as Shearson Lehman Hutton Inc. [28][edit] Divestment and independence (1994–present)In 1993, under newly appointed CEO, Harvey Golub, American Express began to divest itself of its banking and brokerage operations. It sold its retail brokerage and asset management operations to Primerica[29] and in 1994 it spun off Lehman Brothers Kuhn Loeb in an initial public offering, as Lehman Brothers Holdings, Inc. [30]Despite rumors that it would be acquired again, Lehman performed quite well under CEO Richard S. Fuld, Jr.. In 2001, the firm acquired the private-client services, or "PCS", business of Cowen & Co. [31] and later, in 2003, aggressively re-entered the asset-management business, which it had exited in 1989.[32] Beginning with $2 billion in assets under management, the firm acquired the Crossroads Group, the fixed-income division of Lincoln Capital Management[32] and Neuberger Berman [33]. These businesses, together with the PCS business and Lehman's private-equity business, comprised the Investment Management Division, which generated approximately $ billion in net revenue and almost $800 million in pre-tax income in 2007. Prior to going bankrupt, the firm had in excess of $275 billion in assets under management. Altogether, since going public in 1994, the firm had increased net revenues over 600% from $ billion to $ billion and had increased employee headcount over 230% from 8,500 to almost 28,600.[edit] Response to September 11 terrorist attacks The New York City September 11, 2001, Lehman occupied three floors of One World Trade Center where one employee was killed. Its global headquarters in Three World Financial Center were severely damaged and rendered unusable by falling debris, displacing over 6,500 employees. The bank recovered quickly and rebuilt its presence. Trading operations moved across the Hudson River to its Jersey City, New Jersey, facilities, where an impromptu trading floor was built and brought online less than forty-eight hours after the attacks. When stock markets reopened on September 17, 2001, Lehman's sales and trading capabilities were the ensuing months, the firm fanned out its operations across the New York City metropolitan area in over forty temporary locations. Notably, the investment-banking division converted the first-floor lounges, restaurants, and all 665 guestrooms of the Sheraton Manhattan Hotel into office space. The bank also experimented with flextime (to share office space) and telecommuting via virtual private networking. In October 2001, Lehman purchased a 32-story, 1,050,000-square-foot office building for a reported sum of $700 million. The building, located at 745 Seventh Avenue, had recently been built, and not yet occupied, by rival Morgan Stanley. With Morgan Stanley's world headquarters located only two blocks away at 1585 Broadway, in the wake of the attacks the firm was re-evaluating its office plans which would have put over 10,000 employees in the Times Square area of New York City. Lehman began moving into the new facility in January and finished in March 2002, a move that significantly boosted morale throughout the firm was criticized for not moving back to its former headquarters in lower Manhattan. Following the attacks, only Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, and Merrill Lynch of the major firms remained in the downtown area. Lehman, however, points to the facts that it was committed to stay in New York City, that the new headquarters represented an ideal circumstance where the firm was desperate to buy and Morgan Stanley was desperate to sell, that when the new building was purchased, the structural integrity of Three World Financial Center had not yet been given a clean bill of health, and that in any case, the company could not have waited until May 2002 for repairs to Three World Financial Center to the attacks, Lehman's management placed increased emphasis on business continuity planning. Unlike its rivals, the company was unusually concentrated for a bulge-bracket investment bank. For example, Morgan Stanley maintains a 750,000-square-foot trading-and-banking facility in Westchester County, New York. The trading floor of UBS is located in Stamford, Connecticut. Merrill Lynch's asset-management division is located in Plainsboro Township, New Jersey. Aside from its headquarters in Three World Financial Center, Lehman maintained operations-and-backoffice facilities in Jersey City, space that the firm considered leaving prior to 9/11. The space was not only retained, but expanded, including the construction of a backup-trading facility. In addition, telecommuting technology first rolled out in the days following the attacks to allow employees to work from home was expanded and enhanced for general use throughout the firm. [34][edit] 2003 SEC litigationIn 2003, the company was one of ten firms which simultaneously entered into a settlement with the . Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Office of the New York State Attorney General and various other securities regulators, regarding undue influence over each firm's research analysts by their investment-banking divisions. Specifically, regulators alleged that the firms had improperly associated analyst compensation with the firms' investment-banking revenues, and promised favorable, market-moving research coverage, in exchange for underwriting opportunities. The settlement, known as the “global settlement”, provided for total financial penalties of $ billion, including $80 million against Lehman, and structural reforms, including a complete separation of investment banking departments from research departments, no analyst compensation, directly or indirectly, from investment-banking revenues, and the provision of free, independent, third-party, research to the firms' clients.[edit] Subprime mortgage crisisIn August 2007, the firm closed its subprime lender, BNC Mortgage, eliminating 1,200 positions in 23 locations, and took an after-tax charge of $25 million and a $27 million reduction in goodwill. Lehman said that poor market conditions in the mortgage space "necessitated a substantial reduction in its resources and capacity in the subprime space". [35]In 2008, Lehman faced an unprecedented loss to the continuing subprime mortgage crisis. Lehman's loss was apparently a result of having held on to large positions in subprime and other lower-rated mortgage tranches when securitizing the underlying mortgages; whether Lehman did this because it was simply unable to sell the lower-rated bonds, or made a conscious decision to hold them, is unclear. In any event, huge losses accrued in lower-rated mortgage-backed securities throughout 2008. In the second fiscal quarter, Lehman reported losses of $ billion and was forced to sell off $6 billion in assets.[36] In the first half of 2008 alone, Lehman stock lost 73% of its value as the credit market continued to tighten. [36] In August 2008, Lehman reported that it intended to release 6% of its work force, 1,500 people, just ahead of its third-quarter-reporting deadline in September.[36]On August 22, 2008, shares in Lehman closed up 5% (16% for the week) on reports that the state-controlled Korea Development Bank was considering buying the bank. [37] Most of those gains were quickly eroded as news came in that Korea Development Bank was "facing difficulties pleasing regulators and attracting partners for the deal." [38] It culminated on September 9, when Lehman's shares plunged 45% to $, after it was reported that the state-run South Korean firm had put talks on hold. [39]Investor confidence continued to erode as Lehman's stock lost roughly half its value and pushed the S&P 500 down on September 9. The Dow Jones lost 300 points the same day on investors' concerns about the security of the bank. [40] The U. S. government did not announce any plans to assist with any possible financial crisis that emerged at Lehman. [41]The next day, Lehman announced a loss of $ billion and their intent to sell off a majority stake in their investment-management business, which includes Neuberger Berman. [42][43] The stock slid 7 percent that day. [43][44] Lehman, after earlier rejecting questions on the sale of the company, was reportedly searching for a buyer as its stock price dropped another 40 percent on September 11, 2008. [44]Just before the collapse of Lehman Brothers, executives at Neuberger Berman sent e-mail memos suggesting, among other things, that the Lehman Brothers' top people forgo multi-million dollar bonuses to "send a strong message to both employees and investors that management is not shirking accountability for recent performance."Lehman Brothers Investment Management Director George Herbert Walker IV, second cousin to U. S. President George Walker Bush, dismissed the proposal, going so far as to actually apologize to other members of the Lehman Brothers executive committee for the idea of bonus reduction having been suggested. He wrote, "Sorry team. I am not sure what's in the water at Neuberger Berman. I'm embarrassed and I apologize." [3][edit] BankruptcyMain article: Bankruptcy of Lehman BrothersWikinews has related news: Lehman Brothers files for bankruptcy‎ Lehman Brothers headquarters in New York CityOn September 13, 2008, Timothy F. Geithner, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York called a meeting on the future of Lehman, which included the possibility of an emergency liquidation of its assets.[45] Lehman reported that it had been in talks with Bank of America and Barclays for the company's possible sale. However, both Barclays and Bank of America ultimately declined to purchase the entire company.[45][46]The International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA) offered an exceptional trading session on Sunday, September 14, 2008, to allow market participants to offset positions in various derivatives on the condition of a Lehman bankruptcy later that day.[47][48] Although the bankruptcy filing missed the deadline, many dealers honored the trades they made in the special session.[49]Lehman Brothers headquarters in New York City on September 15, 2008In New York, shortly before 1 . the next morning, Lehman Brothers Holdings announced it would file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection[50] citing bank debt of $613 billion, $155 billion in bond debt, and assets worth $639 billion.[51] It further announced that its subsidiaries will continue to operate as normal.[52] A group of Wall Street firms agreed to provide capital and financial assistance for the bank's orderly liquidation and the Federal Reserve, in turn, agreed to a swap of lower-quality assets in exchange for loans and other assistance from the government.[53]The morning of September 15 witnessed scenes of Lehman employees removing computers, files, items with the company logo, and other belongings from the world headquarters at 745 Seventh Avenue. The spectacle continued throughout the day and into the following day. Some also signed a large pencil-drawn picture of CEO Richard S. Fuld, Jr., many of them denouncing him for greed and 's bankruptcy is the largest failure of an investment bank since Drexel Burnham Lambert collapsed amid fraud allegations 18 years prior.[53] Later that day, the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) suspended Lehman's Australian subsidiary as a market participant after clearing-houses terminated their contracts with the firm.[54]Lehman shares tumbled over 90% on September 15, 2008.[55][56] The Dow Jones closed down just over 500 points on September 15, 2008, which was at the time the largest drop in a single day since the days following the attacks on September 11, 2001.[57]In the United Kingdom, the investment bank went into administration with PricewaterhouseCoopers appointed as administrators.[58] In Japan, the Japanese branch, Lehman Brothers Japan Inc., and its holding company filed for civil reorganization on September 16, 2008, in Tokyo District Court.[59]未完

摘 要】从美国次贷危机开始，到美国的房利美和房地美“两房”危机，再到雷曼兄弟申请破产、美林银行被收购、美国最大的保险公司AIG濒临破产被注资850亿美元拯救、全球股市的持续下跌，预示着华尔街最冷的冬天还没有到来，美联储前主席格林斯潘认为，美国正在陷入“百年一遇”的金融危机之中。在全球金融经济一体化的今天，必须认真分析美国金融危机对中国经济带来的影响，采取针对性的措施，才能避免更大的损失。 【关键词】金融危机 经济增长 货币政策 一、中国经济增长速度放缓趋势明显。 中国今明两年经济增速放缓将成为大势所趋，出口以及固定资产投资增速回落是必然趋势。据亚洲开发银行16日发布的年度报告《2008年亚洲发展展望更新》预计，中国经济增速将从2007年的回落到2008年的10%；2009年中国经济增速将进一步回落至。主要原如下， ①由于美国经济增长放缓，出口增长减速远超出预期； ②通货膨胀率升高的趋势将使政府采取更严厉的紧缩货币政策，固定资产投资增速放缓、企业倒闭潮出现，工业利润增长大幅放缓； ③信贷紧缩下房地产市场降温，可能出现比2008年更为严重的危机； ④宏观调控下，房地产、钢材、水泥、铝合金和汽车产业投资增速回落； ⑤每年1000万个新就业岗位完成很困难。农民工回农村种地回潮，农村隐性失业大量增加； ⑥由于明年油价和电价可能会进一步上调带来PPI继续上升的传导因素，2008年中国全年CPI涨幅预测值从先前的上调至7%。2009年预测值从2008年4月的5%上调到； ⑦居民消费增长速度下降，靠消费拉动经济增长等于“画饼充饥”。收入的不稳定性增大、股市的负财富效应、城乡居民收入差距进一步拉大等原因使居民的消费欲望受到抑制。 二、央行的货币政策陷入“左右为难”的境地。 目前，在“保增长”和“控制通货膨胀”之间，央行的货币政策“左右为难”。在全球金融危机下，中国的经济增长受到抑制，增长率放缓是必然的，但在连续10年的高速增长下的“急刹车”会是一大批企业倒闭和就业的困难，影响社会稳定和谐。但放松货币政策又使已经比较严重的PPI和CPI更加泛滥成灾。15日宣布的“两率”下调市场并不领情就是证明。同样，人民币对美元是继续升值或是贬值也是“两难”选择。 三、中国银行业的经营效益增长出现困难。 主要原因： ①在经济下滑状态下，银行的业务拓展空间变窄； ②在居民收入不稳定性加大和货币紧缩政策下，存款大量增加与贷款增量减少的矛盾突出，加上贷款基准利率下调个百分点； ③经济下滑带来的行业、企业破产倒闭，银行不良贷款反弹压力很大（比如房地产贷款下面专门分析）； ④资产泡沫破裂后，银行的抵押物大量缩水，贷款的抵押率超过“警戒线”，第二还款来源丧失。如房地产抵押、土地抵押、股票质押的贷款最为明显； ⑤持有美国次级债或对美国破产公司的贷款造成的损失。如中国银行集团共持有雷曼兄弟控股公司及其子公司发行的债券7,562万美元；工商银行对雷曼公司贷款5000万美元；招商银行对雷曼贷款8000万美元； ⑥中国商业银行在2008年在海外的收购及投资因危机加重，过去的“抄底”行为变成了现在的“垫背”结果。按照高盛的预测，2009年香港H股中资银行的获利大约下降4%-8%；规模较小的股份制A股银行获利下降幅度更达到8%-13%。 四、各国央行任何救市行为都会“失灵”。 就在最近两天，以美联储为首的全球央行和金融监管当局各显神通，为金融体系注入超过3000亿美元的流动性。美联储过去两天连续通过回购协议向市场注资1200亿美元，这是“911”以来最大规模的注资行动。在美国之后，欧元区、英国、日本、澳大利亚以及瑞士等多个央行也连续采取注资措施。在亚洲，中国大陆和台湾都先后宣布下调存款准备金率或是贷款利率，印尼则宣布下调隔夜回购利率。 但各国央行的努力没有马上收到成效，道指、标普500指数、纳指、欧洲股市、伦敦股市全线下跌沪深A股金融股抛压沉重，沪指的十年成本线也岌岌可危。在投资者的信心跌到“冰点”之后，任何的救市措施都会在沉重的抛压之下，变成“昙花一现”的“绿色风景”。但需要积极的财政政策，今天的印花税单边征收就是较好的救市行为。在投资者信心丧失后，最好是彻底取消印花税。 五、房地产行业真正的“冬天”来临，寄希望于政府救房市无异于“痴人说梦”。 在全球金融危机带来的经济下滑趋势中，中国房地产行业的真正“冬天”和银行不良贷款风险将在2008年末与2009上半年开始显现。未来房产业的成交量持续下滑、购房者信心减弱和持币观望、空房率持续增加与毛利率下降，将导致开发商遭遇现金流的困扰，银行业中的房地产不良贷款风险将大为提高。 根据高盛从银行向65家房产商贷放记录分析来看，从去年10月楼市调整以来，开发商现金流不足现象，就已逐渐暴露出来；但开发商仍以较高的利率，从国内外的私人投资者吸引了资金。为了筹集现金，国内大牌明星房地产开发商万科、恒大等都在竞相降价销售，明显看出珠三角城市的房价已陷入下降趋势，尤其是同比下降较多的三个城市是深圳、广州与惠州。中国政府机构在16日表示，8月追踪70个城市的房价指数首度较前月下滑，上海地区下跌了。目前，中国各地房价下跌现象越来越普遍，房地产投资进一步萎缩。 此外，曾踊跃投资上海房地产的摩根士丹利，如今却要抛售部份最顶尖的豪宅，最近大摩旗下的房地产基金将两栋上海豪宅标售，包括新天地超过100间的商务住宅。此外，大摩原本有兴趣买下上海最高楼--上海环球金融中心的楼层，而后也作罢。结合美国的“金融危机”来看，大摩标售中国房地产有可能是为潜在的流动性危机做准备，它可能也预示着部分外资开始准备撤出中国房地产市场，这将对本在严冬中的中国房地产市场“雪上加霜”－－先是开发商面临偿付能力危机，其后是实力不济的房地产开发商倒闭，进而殃及国内银行。

1、由于决策的失误。

2、政府袖手旁观。

3、次贷危机所致。

背景知识：

1、在美国抵押款债券业务上连续40年独占鳌头的雷曼兄弟公司，在次贷危机的冲击下没能挺身而过，公司所持有的巨量与住房抵押贷款相关的“毒药资产”在次贷危机中亏损累累。次贷危机爆发前，就持有大量的次级债金融产品和其他较低等级的住房抵押贷款金融产品。

2、虽然巴克莱和美洲银行都对收购雷曼兄弟产生了极大的兴趣，但最终导致他们选择放弃的原因，是没有得到美国政府或其他华尔街公司就雷曼兄弟资产潜在损失提供保护的承诺。

雷曼旗下机构Neuberger Berman的资产管理业务由于决策的失误，雷曼兄弟背上了500多亿美元难以脱手的资产。贝尔斯登公司事件后，美联储已经向投资银行开设了特别的融资渠道，允许投资银行像商业银行那样直接向中央银行贷款。但是雷曼兄弟一直就没有利用这一政策，失去了自救的最佳时机。

推荐三本书都和经济危机有关，第一本我正在看，其它两本没看过但是看介绍也是不错的。 LZ,我推荐的几本还是可以的都是学者的著作，索罗斯更是学知和一的人物。货币战争我不想说什么，完全是哗众取宠的书。 《疯狂、惊恐和崩溃：金融危机史（第四版）》 978年本书出了第一版，主要讨论第二次世界大战前的金融危机。主要讨论第二次世界大战前的金融危机。1987年10月19日的“黑色星期一”，再加上对较早前危机的更多研究，至少对我来说，表明有必要对第一版进行更新。1990年1月日本经济的崩溃促使本书第三版的诞生。第三版至今又有一些日子了。 第四版对读者来说可能会觉得没有必要，它的问世可能只是出于作者的职业需要。推动力部分是来源于1994～1995年间的墨西哥危机，但更多的是由于1997～1998年的东亚危机，殷鉴不远。此外，与过去一样，其他经济学家和历史学家的研究已填补了历史中的一些空白，本书也加以吸收，以充实前后发展的讨论。 作者简介 查尔斯·P.金德尔伯格（1910——2003）：麻省理工大学经济系资深教授，国际货币问题专家，擅长从历史角度研究经济问题，第二次世办大战后马歇计划的主要构建者之一。 《索罗斯带你走出金融危机》 书名：索罗斯带你走出金融危机 原名：The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crash of 2008 and What It Means 著者：乔治·索罗斯 出版时间：2008-11 ISBN：978-7-111-25438-6 出版社：机械工业出版社 定价：元 新书内容介绍： 本书是索罗斯的最新著作，也是他自从写作以来第一本名副其实的畅销书。他从美国席卷全球的次贷危机入手，继续阐述自己的金融理论——反射论。一开篇，索罗斯就来了一个下马威：“这是自20世纪30年代以来最严重的一次危机，它标志着一个时代的终结。”在书中，索罗斯对近来国际经济热点问题发表了自己的看法，认为过于依赖自由市场的陈旧模式累积出了大量的泡沫，如今将世界经济拖入困境。但是，新兴国家如中国、印度等的强劲增长，将使全球市场避免崩溃，政府必须在市场中有所作为。他的看法先后引起了美国白宫、全球金融界的重视。 《终结次贷危机 》 次贷危机已经对数百万人的生活造成了破坏，现在，它又对美国经济和世界经济造成了巨大威胁。毫无疑问，这场危机的严重性和破坏性正在逐渐显现。这场危机是从哪里起源的？它给美国和世界带来了什么影响？怎样才能度过这场危机？所有人都想知道这些问题的答案。 蜚声国际的耶鲁大学经济学家罗伯特•席勒在他的新著中详细解释了过去一年来美国次级按揭风暴的来龙去脉，告诉读者数以万计美元的次按债券如何变成废纸。希勒认为，次贷危机源于非理性繁荣，正是这种羊群效应的心理导致了美国20世纪90年代的股市泡沫和2000-2007年的房地产泡沫。书中以对美国金融制度历史背景的深入观察，描述了这些泡沫如何导致信贷的危险扩张，并最终演变成全球信贷危机的过程。 对美国来说，有解决这次危机的最佳方案吗？希勒结合自己的分析，提出了短期和长期的解决措施，从政府救市的短期方案到重建美国金融制度的深入探讨，相信这些富有建设性的方案对于解决次贷危机，甚至目前的金融危机都会有较强的参考意义。

辉煌的30年 1949新中国的成立使祖国母亲彻底摆脱了被压迫的境地，中国这头东方睡狮开始慢慢觉醒，但却步履维艰，直到1978年，中共十一届三中全会作出全面实行改革开放的新决策；从此改革开放的春风使中华大地再次焕发了活力，中华民族终于踏上了民族复兴的伟大征程！ 30年的征程，中华民族以崭新的姿态重新屹立于世界民族之林；30年的沧桑巨变，30年的光辉历程，铸就了一个民族近百年的梦想！ 改革开放的30年，是中国经济迅速蓬勃的30年！幢幢高楼拔地而起，人民生活水平不断提高，我国的综合国力不断增强，国际地位不断提高，世界上任何一个重大事项不能没有中国的参与，我国越来越在国际舞台上发挥重要作用。改革开放的30年，是中国社会和谐稳定的30年！中华民族犹如钢铁长城一般坚不可摧！97年香港回归，99年澳门回归；1998年面对南方历史罕见的特大洪水，2003年面对让人闻风丧胆的非典疫情，2008年面对十几个省份百年不遇的冰雪灾害，以及四川大地震，中华儿女众志成城，手挽手将一个个磨难踩在脚下。 改革开放的 30年，我们国家在进步，人民生活达到小康水平，听爸爸妈妈讲，他们小的时候，生活非常困难，吃饭用粮票，买布用布票， 很多商品都凭票供应，有时为买生活用品需排很长时间的队，吃的是玉米面，只能在逢年过节时才能吃上大米和肉，只能在过年时才能穿上新衣裳。对此，我们现在的生活真是发生了翻天覆地的变化，我们衣食无忧，每天的生活都像是在过节一样，我们可以在计算机上学习查找资料，可以在计算机上玩游戏，享受网络世界带给我们的快乐，这都是改革开放带来的幸福生活。 改革开放的30年是中国航天事业不断创新的30年！2008年，神舟七号载人航天卫星，是我国首颗探月卫星“嫦娥一号”发射升空，宇行员出舱，而且顺利返回；炎黄子孙的千年奔月梦成为了现实！中国航天人在摸索中让祖国一跃成为航天科技强国！ 改革开放的30年，也是我国体育事业蒸蒸日上的30年！而今年2008年，在北京奥运会上我们的体育健儿更是一举夺得51枚金牌，100枚奖牌位具金牌榜第一的骄人成绩。 改革开放的30年，是辉煌的30年。我们一定要好好学习，掌握科学技术知识，努力把自己造就成祖国有用之材，将来用我们的双手建设伟大的祖国，把我们的祖国建设更加强大，更加美好。 我们坚信，在中华民族伟大复兴的征程上，必将出现一个又一个辉煌的30年！中华民族的崛起，必将让世界为我们自豪！ 看看吧！！！！怎么样？？？？希望对你有帮助！！！

金融市场的内在经济特征 汇率的内在波动性：汇率是两种货币的相对价格，同其他商品的价格一样，当需求和供给相等时，汇率达到均衡。有所不同的是，汇率是一种相对价格，两种货币的相对供给等于相对需求时决定了汇率水平。但有些因素会引起两种货币供求不平衡：货币政策变化是潜在不对称的根源，其它非对称变化，例如财政政策的变化、自然灾害、对世界货币的需求的变化，也能影响汇率，甚至是事件本身是对称的，如果市场参与者的反映不同，汇率也会发生改变。 一国的货币当局为了维持汇率的稳定必须不断地干预市场，如果干预政策有效，为了抵消起初的非对称变化导致的汇率改变，相对货币供给必须相应发生变化。 但是基于一些原因，外汇交易干预很容易变得不可能：一是外汇储备不是无限的，这适用于本国货币遭受攻击的情况，如果要使本国货币停止贬值，当局必须卖出外汇买入本国货币，但没有一个国家拥有无限的外汇储备面对全球市场大部分市场参与者连续不断地买入而不断地卖出，每天在全球外汇交易市场上易手的货币数量超过所有IMF成员国的外汇储备之和。 另一个原因与丁伯根定理有关，该定理表明，为了达到政策目标，独立政策工具的数量不能少于独立政策目标的数量。在目前环境下，工具是货币政策，目标是汇率稳定和国内经济稳定，一般来讲，一种政策工具不能达到两个目标。 为了维持汇率稳定就必须干预市场，然而却面临“两难选择”的困境，究竟是优先考虑汇率稳定还是国内经济？一个国家一般准备放弃货币政策的自主性或资本自由流动以维持汇率的稳定，尽管如此，外汇储备的匮乏会使该项目标成为不可能，汇率不能简单地一直保持固定不变。 金融市场的特殊性：汇率是金融市场中的价格，它们的特点与金融市场的基本特征息息相关，金融市场在以下几个方面不同于一般的商品或劳务市场。金融市场中的交易成本很低，交易迅速，短期内大量资金能从一个市场流入另一个市场。在金融市场中，市场预期、传言和当局的可信度在价格决定中起着重要作用，由于这个原因和上面第一点原因，金融市场的价格具有内在不稳定性。信息不对称盛行，债务人比债权人具有更多的偿还债务方面的信息，这不仅容易导致逆向选择，不良项目得到融资，而且“无知”市场参与者受到意外事件冲击时容易诱发金融恐慌。进一步地讲，由于金融交易的隐蔽性和低交易成本性，市场交易者和监管部门也具有不对称信息。金融部门的道德风险显著强于其他部门的道德风险。没有其他机构能取代金融中介在经济中的重要地位。 金融危机的诱因 在金融市场的这些特征中，前三个特征随金融全球化而得到强化，他们构成了触发金融危机的重要因素，金融市场具有内在不稳定性，有些经济萧条或政策失误就会触发金融危机。事实上，即使不考虑跨国资本流动和汇率变化，金融市场的特征足以诱发国内金融危机。 如果考虑到国际资本流动和汇率变化，危机就会更加严重。国际借贷增大了资本流动的数量；如果发生金融恐慌，国外资金比国内资金更可能被抽逃；当资本在国际范围内流动时，信息不对称问题更加恶化，两个国际经济机构比两个国内经济机构更可能具有不同背景，当局获得国外企业信息更加困难，尤其是建立在“避税天堂”中的企业；如果一国货币是可兑换的，货币当局就不易控制货币事件，因此国际资本流动增大了金融市场的易变性。 汇率易变性和金融市场的特殊性是经济逻辑演绎的结果，具有普适性，每一个参与国际经济流动的国家都会或多或少发生一些危机。换句话说，金融危机并不是新兴金融市场的个别现象，金融市场的特征决定了金融危机容易转化为经济危机。这是因为，金融中介维持着经济系统的血液循环，一旦货币或金融中介活动陷入无序状态，整个经济就会迅速而又严重地受到冲击。 对我国金融市场开放的启示 当前，在入世的推动下，我国正在逐步开放我国的金融市场，人民币自由兑换、国内金融领域向国外开放已经逐渐提上议事日程，前面所论述的诱发金融危机的因素在我国也开始发挥作用。根据前面的论述，由于无法消除金融危机发生的可能性，我们的目标只能是尽可能地降低危机发生的可能性，政策并不能很好地改变诱发金融危机的两个基本因素，我们只能采取措施降低危机发生的程度和频率。 保持竞争和保护之间的均衡 如果一国想分享全球储蓄有效分配的利益，资本管制无论如何也无法永远存在下去，一旦一国解除资本管制，诱发经济危机的基本因素就会凸现出来，政策能改变的两个基本因素就是减少信息不对称和道德风险。 开放金融市场放松资本市场管制是经济发展的内在规律，随着我国金融市场的进一步开放，我国必须采取以下措施来降低金融危机发生的可能性。 通过资产管理公司处理完银行造成的损失后，政府和中央银行不应再替市场中的商业银行承担损失。在这种情况下，如果市场参与者确信没有最后求助贷款，道德风险就会减少。 逐步对国外竞争者开放我国金融部门。换言之，资本流动管制不同于禁止国外竞争者进入本国的金融市场。这一点对减少金融危机的频率与规模具有深刻含义。禁止国外竞争者进入本国金融部门是非常危险的，因为这会导致一国金融中介标准的唯一化，如果一味排斥国外竞争者，金融中介标准就会促进信息不对称和风险。为了减少金融危机的风险，一个方法是开放本国金融部门参与国际竞争，这种措施具有下列好处：国外金融机构一般要求更多透明度，规定与标准将愈加全面；为了在竞争中获胜，我国的金融机构不仅在产品数量而且在风险管理中也必须是有效和有效率的；在同国外金融机构竞争过程中，我国金融机构可以学习到外国同行的先进做法，不断增强自身实力，如同我国家电行业的发展那样；在金融市场开放的过程中。我国政策当局将逐渐放弃对本国企业的特殊照顾，政策当局的活动将更加透明，这将为金融市场的发展营造一个良好的发展环境；在开放的过程中，我国政府也将会看到要求建立健全维持稳定的竞争性环境的法律框架的迫切需要。 但是，另一方面，金融部门天生具有不稳定性，过度竞争会导致金融部门的不稳定，这与竞争是通过减少信息不对称与道德风险以稳定市场的目的抵触。显然，我国国内金融部门引入竞争要比在其他部门引入竞争需要更加慎重。 货币当局需要权衡，金融部门的过度竞争会阻碍经济稳定和发展，这就是一个国家在早期发展阶段需要管制和固定的汇率的缘由。然而，金融部门的过度保护会诱发道德风险，降低金融中介标准的透明度。 建立与国际接轨的规则 与世界公认的监管规则相协调一致，如果各国的金融中介标准一致，金融业务就会便于在全球范围内展开。汇率由于信息不对称而发生变化，根据定义，趋于一致意味着更弱的信息不对称，从这种意义上讲，不考虑究竟会趋于怎样的共同规则，共同规则本身已经令人非常满意。如果共同规则能确保透明度和信息揭露度，它将更加有利。金融交易标准应该保证合同和原则向每个人公开，这种标准就是理想的“全球标准”。 参考文献： 1. Paul Krugman. Working Paper. Massachusetts Institute of Technology，1998 2.陈玲娟，李栋巍.探讨金融危机的成因及预防.决策探索，2003