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With costs in China rising, the shipping industry has been investing in Vietnam, and shippers may be ready to join them Technology market leader Intel is due to turn on the switch at its $1 billion integrated circuit packaging and testing plant in Ho Chi Minh City later this year, but there is far more at stake for shipping lines, logistics companies and the rest of the trading world than the work on semiconductors. Intel is inaugurating its plant in Vietnam at the start of what some believe may be the opening of a new era of trade in Asia. China’s decade-long role as the world’s factory floor is being challenged by rising labor costs and budding Chinese consumerism, pushing manufacturers to look for alternatives to models built on China’s low costs. To many, Vietnam looks to be the strongest of those alternatives, with Intel’s move into Ho Chin Minh City serving as a potential signature event. “In effect, we are seeing a very fast transformation of Vietnam’s light industrial base,” said Richard Martin, managing director of IMA Asia, an economic research and forecasting firm. “The big shift in the last two years is the rise of electronics.” Exports of textiles and garments grew 18.3 percent in the first four months of this year compared to a year earlier, according to IMA Asia, and footwear rose 5.1 percent. Computer and electronics exports jumped 40.8 percent in the same period. Electronics still make up a relatively small share of the Vietnam’s exports volume, but that gap in the growth rate amid pressure at China factories to raise wages has more companies looking seriously at the country’s potential for manufacturing and sourcing. In fact, the Gold Rush to take advantage of Vietnam’s low labor costs is picking up again this year as more U.S. and European importers shift production of textiles, apparel and footwear to the rapidly growing country. The shift, which began in 2007 when Vietnam became a member of the World Trade Organization, hit a brick wall last year as new foreign investment all but dried up during the Great Recession, and the country’s torrid trade growth slowed.Although Intel’s plant has been in the works for several years, it’s one tangible sign that foreign direct investment in manufacturing facilities, which grew at a compound annual rate of 11.6 percent from 2000 to 2008 before falling 73 percent last year, is on its way back. Foreign investment grew in the first quarter with restored interest in textiles and footwear and the long-awaited move up the value chain to electronics. The country’s prime minister told the World Economic Forum in Ho Chi Minh City this month that Vietnam’s economy will grow 6.5 to 7 percent this year after expanding 5.3 percent in 2009. The recession didn’t stop container lines from adding new direct services to the U.S. and terminal operators from opening four facilities, all of it built on business that was growing last year and, they believe, has the potential to grow far more. In the 13 months since the Port of Ho Chi Minh City, where the Cai Mep and Thi Vai Rivers meet, was dredged to 35 feet, or deep enough to handle the midsize ships that ply the trans-Pacific, many of the world’s major container lines have started calling at two of the port’s four new container terminals with direct services to the U.S. The recession slowed the growth of the volumes carried by the direct services that have been launched by APL, “K” Line, Hanjin, Maersk Line, MOL, NYK and OOCL, and it is only now that their ships are sailing full.“Vietnam was a mainstay for us in 2009 in what was otherwise a horrible year,” said Goh Teik Poh, president for South Asia at APL. “We saw 7 percent growth (in Vietnam) last year, slower than the 13 to 14 percent growth in 2008, but nevertheless good growth.” APL started two direct services to the U.S. last year, one on its own and the other as part of the New World Alliance. It also started new Vietnam calls by five intra-Asian services. “We intend to launch a couple more depending on timing.”Carriers clamoring to start the first direct services from Vietnam to Europe will be able to do so next March when Japan’s office of Official Development Assistance, the aid agency that is part of the country’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, completes dredging the channel to the lower harbor down to 45 feet and two more container terminals open with access to the deeper channel.By then, Vietnam’s container trade, which started to revive in the first quarter of this year, should return to double-digit growth rates. The only constraint on growth will be the still-lagging state of Vietnam’s inland road network and the relatively small sizes of the new terminals that the Vietnamese government has approved.Yet even last year, when the recession cut global trade volume 10 percent, Vietnam’s overall trade volume increased 2 percent, although that was down from the average 20 percent annual growth it enjoyed during from 2005 to 2008. Total U.S. containerized trade with Vietnam grew 6.5 percent last year, according to PIERS Global Intelligence Solutions, a sister company of The Journal of Commerce. U.S. imports from Vietnam fell 2.8 percent, while exports to Vietnam rose 31.8 percentVietnam last year surpassed Hong Kong as the No. 2 exporter of women’s and infant wear to the United States, behind China, according to PIERS, and containerized trade volume in that business nearly doubled between 2005 to 2009, to 48,609 TEUs, a compound annual growth rate of 17.4 percent. Those exports grew 0.4 percent in the first quarter while shipments from Hong Kong, Indonesia and Cambodia fell. Vietnam is behind China and Hong Kong in footwear, but compound annual growth of 10 percent over the last five years pushed the country’s share of those exports to the United States from 4 percent to 7 percent. With demand recovering quickly, Vietnam’s overall trade volume is expected to resume its double-digit growth this year and continue at that rate in the years to come. PIERS forecasts U.S. imports from Vietnam will jump 41.6 percent this year, and exports, 16.3 percent. That will be another accelerator of growth for Vietnam,” said Martin Gaard Christiansen, CEO for APM Terminals’ Asia-Pacific region. “Instead of all European goods being transshipped, now you’ll be able to load them directly for Europe. We’ve seen a high demand from carriers to bring in direct strings for the Pacific trade. But next year, they will be able to bring in Europe-bound vessels.”European imports from Vietnam are transported on feeder ships to Singapore or Hong Kong and transshipped onto Asia-Europe loops that use vessels with a capacity of 10,000 to 12,000 TEUs. Those have a draft that’s too deep for the current terminals at Ho Chi Minh’s City’s port.APM Terminals and two local partners are building the Cai Mep International Terminal, which will open in January. The terminal will be able to handle Asia-Europe trade when the dredging to a 45-foot draft is completed in March. Its 656-foot-long berth will have a capacity of 600,000 TEUs, but that will be expanded to 1.1 million TEUs in 2011 after Phase 2 construction is completed.“In March, every single shipping line that has a service to Europe will want to come in,” said Malcolm Gregory, head of commercial operations at the Cai Mep International Terminal. “The next problem is that only one facility will be open — ours — and we won’t be able to handle them all. That’s a nice position to be in.”A second deep-water terminal, the Saigon SSA International Terminal, also will open next year with access to the 45-foot channel, but not until year-end. If the opening of the new terminals that can handle direct Asia-Europe services does rev up European demand for Vietnamese products, there could be a slowing in the growth of Vietnam’s exports to the U.S. as European importers corner more of the supply. “I expect that we’ll see a slowdown in exports to the U.S.,” said Julia Hughes, executive director of the United States Association of Importers of Textiles and Apparel. “There’s not unlimited capacity for textile and apparel production. Usually, if there is a surge in one market, like Europe, there is a balancing act between the U.S. and EU business.”Over the 12 months through March, U.S. apparel imports from Vietnam were up almost 7 percent by volume. Non-apparel imports, which include yarns, fabrics and furnishings rose 96 percent in the same period. “That’s where the big growth has been, off a smaller base,” Hughes said. “In the past year, no one was growing except Vietnam.”The rapid pace of maritime development is reminiscent of what happened when China’s trade took off 10 years ago. But Vietnam’s terminals, even those under construction, are far smaller than those that have been built in China. “When you look at the number of facilities, it sounds like a lot, but when you look at the number of berth windows, it’s not so much,” Christiansen said. Another constraint on growth is Vietnam’s poorly developed road system. The country has a total road network of 137,944 miles, but only 19 percent of that is paved. Roads are so poor that a lot of the cargo is transported by barge from the factories around Ho Chi Minh City 50 miles down the river to the new terminals.Vietnam’s government is pouring money into its road network, but getting goods on the road may not be the biggest barrier, trade experts say. The country has notorious red tape. “There are still barriers to doing business in Vietnam because of the way it’s structured and the way it handles business,” said Evan Armstrong, president of Armstrong & Associates, a research and consulting firm in Staughton, Wis. “If you do business in Vietnam, you’re doing business with the government. It’s not like doing business with the United States.”APM Terminals’ Christiansen said his company had no problems getting permits to build the Cai Mep International Terminal, but Armstrong said setting up a reliable supply chain in Vietnam requires a different structure. “Companies that are looking to do business there should make sure they have a good logistics provider with local expertise that can help you manage your supply chain,” he said.

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