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关于商业银行信贷风险管理的研究论文从经济风险及银行信贷风险管理的一般理论出发，阐明经济风险是现代市场经济的基本特征之一，而银行信贷风险是整个经济风险的集中反映。风险的本质在于收益与损失的可能性并存，因而对经济主体有激励效应与约束效应。商业银行经营的本质就是在风险的这种双重效应的制衡下，回避与防范风险，使风险降到自身可接受的程度，同时获取尽可能大的利润。由于信贷业务在银行经营及经济运行中的重要地位，银行的信贷风险控制就具有了特别重要的意义。目前，西文经济学界运用信息不对称理论，对银行信贷风险产生的原因， 已取得共识，即信息不对称下的逆选择和道德风险以及信息不完全的客观风险。文章还讨论了信贷风险管理与商业银行资产负债比例管理、资本充足率管理、内部控制的关系；并澄清了信贷风险管理认识上的一些误区。以上内容构成了本文的第一章。 文章的第二章首先比较了各种外部组织形式与风险管理效率的关系，指出外部组织形式并非影响信贷管理效率的决定性因素，而内部组织结构才是其中的关键因素。设计信贷风险管理组织结构的重点在于形成各部门之间的横向牵制和各级分支机构的纵向控制机制。西方商业银行经过长期经营发展，内部组织结构逐渐固化为三大功能块：市场块、操作块、管理块，分别行使市场开拓、业务操作、集中管理的职能，三者相互牵制、相互配合。这种组织设计思想体现在信贷业务上，就是审、贷、查三程序在组织结构上的彻底分离，即公司业务部、信贷评审部、风险管理部分别实施贷前调查、贷中审查、贷后检查职能，并且三个部门分别属于不同功能块，以此实现部门间的横向牵制。纵向控制主要是通过贷款决策权在上、下级机构之间进行分配实现的，即对集权型决策与分权型决策的选择；同时也包括在同一机构内，贷款决策权在个人与集体之间的分配，即对个人决策权与集体决策权的选择。文章用运组织管理学的基本原理，详细讨论了这两组共四种决策体制的优劣，指出单纯使用上述任何一种决策机制都存在明显的缺陷，因此现代商业银行都倾向于将集体决策与个人决策、集权型与分权型结合起来，采取以个人
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第一条，宏观经济政策，特别是货币政策必须要正确和稳健，这一点对整个金融的稳定至关重要。宏观经济政策和货币政策，可以是一个非常复杂的组合，但是我更强调货币政策，比如说利率、汇率、货币供应量、金融市场、资本市场，这些大的宏观变量要协调一致，才能够保持经济和金融的稳定。观察过去六七年中美国和全球的情况，我们会发现，如果说货币供应量过多、利率过低的时间很长，有可能造就金融资产泡沫的土壤。51-51免费论文网-网-欢迎您 第二条，没有免费的午餐，违背市场规律必然要付出代价。我们知道，新增次贷贷款的时间大概是2002年到2006年这5年。次贷的余额一共也就一万亿美元，但是它对整个金融市场的冲击却非常大。51-51免费论文网-网-欢迎您 这给我们一个什么教训呢？就是该财政做的事就应该是财政做，该补助穷人的事应该是政府补助穷人，如果用一种金融的方式使不符合标准的人得到贷款，好像解决了问题又把贷款卖出去了，实际上造成的成本是很高的。所以这又一次验证了经济学上说的没有免费的午餐，我们必须要符合市场规律。51-51免费论文网-网-欢迎您 第三条，由于信息不对称，市场过度相信评级公司。监管当局应该从宏观政策的角度，应该从宏观变量的不协调上及时发现风险，但是看来(监管当局)做得不够，没有及时向市场提出警示，对这个问题我们应该共同思考能够从中学到什么。51-51免费论文网-网-欢迎您 第四条，风险暴露以后，产生了巨大的不确定性，很多人没有估计到次贷危机会有这么大的冲击力。这种冲击力的传导机制是由于不确定性损害了商业银行的资本充足率，损害了全世界中心市场的商业银行资本充足率和投资银行的经营状况。51-51免费论文网-网-欢迎您 第五条，货币当局的稳定措施不断地在防止危机和道德风险两方面权衡，非常困难。英格兰银行、欧洲央行、美联储在对待危机前后的态度、表态，以及在救助的及时性、救助的方法方面有些不一致。所有这些不一致，实际上都可以归纳为两个方面：一方面要防止危机的扩散，比如1929年到1933年就产生了大萧条、大衰退，而1987年股灾就没有(导致发生大萧条、大衰退)。51-51免费论文网-网-欢迎您 但同时在另一方面，正像英格兰银行行长所说，也要防止道德风险，防止不负责任地依赖政府的道德风险。这两者的权衡，是货币当局采取稳定措施中最困难的。51-51免费论文网-网-欢迎您 第六条，我提一个思考。从1933年到1999年60多年间，美国实行《格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法》，这个法案是1933年大危机之后提出来的，基本的思想是分业经营、分业监管。对这个法案的本质，有人说是误读，有人说是正确的总结。1933年通过60多年后一直生效，直到1999年美国国会通过了《金融服务现代化法案》取代了它。51-51免费论文网-网-欢迎您 1999年到现在还不到10年，我提出的问题是，如果《格拉斯-斯蒂格尔法》没有终止的话，会不会发生次贷危机？ 容维创富红蓝箭头明确提示买入卖出，天圆地方把握波段高低点。无论大盘急涨暴跌您手持利器，仍可安然而卧；不管您手中持有什么股票或想要买入何种股票，只要拿起您的电话拨打热线8007225555、4007225555或移动用户，联通用户，小灵通用户编辑短信8868发送至50120(0.1元/每条,绝无包月)就将得到我们容维公司倾情提供的个股分析和由容维分析师团队给您的波段买卖操作建议。望广大投资者万勿错失良机！ b证监会研究中心研究员王欧：监管应与时而进/b 美联储的救助行动经历了上世纪80年代的储贷危机、90年代的美国长期资本管理公司(LTCM)以及次贷危机三个阶段的变迁。51-51免费论文网-网-欢迎您 在储贷危机中，陷入危机的基本上都是银行信贷机构。美国国会成立了重组信托公司(RTC)来处理银行的不良资产。51-51免费论文网-网-欢迎您 美联储，包括美国政府则动用大量的财政资金直接救助濒临破产信贷机构，因为储户的钱是不能损失的。由此美国出现了一个非常大的创新，即要求银行尽可能地降低所持有的资产潜在的风险，尤其在房贷资产不能拿这么多。51-51免费论文网-网-欢迎您 在储贷危机之前，美国银行系统大概持有70%以上房地产，大概到了1993年的时候，美国银行系统持有房贷比例大概在30%左右，到今天还在30%。随之美国资产证券化市场应运而生。华尔街银行家们通过各种创新金融工具，帮助银行把他资产负债表中这一类资产打包卖出去，这就形成了今天的证券化市场和后来的次贷市场。51-51免费论文网-网-欢迎您 而到LTCM发生危机时，LTCM实际上不是银行，而是一家大型对冲基金。但当LTCM危机爆发时，美联储不得不出面协调。LTCM后面跟着一串银行，所以格林斯潘果断出手了。51-51免费论文网-网-欢迎您 而贝尔斯登是一个清算机构，如果任由一个有清算职能非银行金融机构出现破产，对市场的影响是无法想象的。因此在这种情况下美联储不得不通过美联储会员摩根大通，收购贝尔斯登。51-51免费论文网-网-欢迎您 不仅应该思考中央银行该采取什么样的方式去应对，也应该思考证券监管者应当采取什么样的方式去应对，更要考虑证券监管者是否需要更多的引入银行监管中的审慎性原则，来对目前这样大型非银行金融机构进行日常监管。51-51免费论文网-网-欢迎您 现代金融市场发展到一定程度以后，金融机构涉及的业务越来越多，很难区别什么是信贷业务，什么是非信贷业务，什么是信贷机构，什么是非银行机构，大家做的业务越来越向中间取齐。
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Interest rate marketability and our country State-owned Commercial bank countermeasureInterest rate marketability connotationThe so-called interest rate marketability, is refers to the money market fund supply and demand both sides independent determination interest rate level interest rate decision mechanism vicissitude process 。Says specifically, the interest rate marketability is refers to the Central Bank to need to regulate the datum interest rate according to the monetary policy, various commercial bank saves the loan interest rate according to the fund market supply and demand change independent adjustment, Finally forms take Central Bank datum interest rate as the guidance, multi-level, can manifest fund supply and demand condition and the reflection Central Bank monetary policy intention interest rate operational mechanism fully。The interest rate marketability emphasis interest rate really reflected the fund cost and the supply-demand relation, effectively display its economical leverage nimbly。一. Our country interest rate marketability reform existence questionIs opposite says in the Chinese economic reform and the opening to the outside world overall step, the interest rate marketability reform progresses slowly. Looked on the present situation that, our country not yet completely realizes the interest rate marketability, the interest rate control creates the interest rate this important price release lever to receive the serious restraint in the resources disposition aspect function, the interest rate structure distortion. Our country interest rate system marketability degree quite is also low, mainly displays in following several aspects:1. The interest rate control degree is high, the interest rate level and the structure are incompatible, and the bank independency is restricted. The current our country interest rate policy movement environment controls the interest rate primarily, the interest rate level decision, the difference interest rate policy making and so on the related interest rate each aspect policy all by the government strict control, displays the high planning and closeness.2. The interest rate level determination has certain subjective blindness; the rate adjustment flexibility is insufficient. At present our country interest rate level decision is makes by the monetary policy committee, the interest rate decision-making power high degree of concentration in the central authorities, the interest rate formulation and the adjustment has the serious time lag effect.3. Lacks the effective market datum interest rate. On November 1, 2003, the NAP Standing Committee Cheng Sewer, vice chairman of the Forum, said: "The market-oriented interest rates, the key is to set the benchmark interest rate. The benchmark interest rate is determined, in order to determine the interest rate structure, risk structure. No established the benchmark rate, the interest rate market is a empty sentences. "Benchmark rate in the entire interest rate system has played a core role and prevents other interest rates, in a sense, the benchmark interest rate options and determine the interest rate market is the core of the reform steps.二．Implements the interest rate marketability state-owned commercial bank significanceFirst, is advantageous to the expansion state-owned commercial bank right of autonomous management, the enhancement competitive power. After the interest rate lets loose, the bank had the independent fixed price power, may use this kind of right to independence and its flexible full display fully. The various countries' reform experience indicated that, after the interest rate marketability, the deposit real interest rate all has the different scope raise. The real interest rate rise will have the positive influence to the deposit, the attraction fund from bank systems and so on the stock market, black market accepts the human bank system, the enhancement commercial bank's competitive power. Next, is advantageous in raises the state-owned commercial bank management level. The interest rate marketability causes the fund price to let loose truly. Price competition between the banks presents the new ball game from this. But the price competition must rise take the low cost fund as the backing. In order to gain the low cost capital source, various bank in the financial product, the marketing strategy, service method general unfolds manager respectively, this will intensify inevitably the competition intense degree, will urge the bank change management way, who will grasp is initiative who to be able to obtain market (In the new situation, the commercial bank guild cared about the interest rate market change situation and the international interest rate undulation tendency, and according to own situation, determines the cost scientifically, formulates the price reasonably, the enhancement economic accounting, strengthens its profit ability. It can be said that, the interest rate marketability reform, the interest rate production mechanism transformation, is to a commercial bank management and operation from inside to outside comprehensive forging. Is once more advantageous in creates a relatively fair competition environment. The interest rate marketability and the money market consummation is a process which complements one another. The developed money market is the interest rate marketability reliable guarantee. Because in the developed consummation money market, the financial tool type is rich, financial main body multi-dimensional, the financing way is diverse, the competition is full, the interest rate can reflect fully the fund price, can guide the resources reasonable disposition, enhances the resources use efficiency. Otherwise, the interest rate marketability can promote the money market development consummation; The money market is the interest rate marketability advancement beginning, also will be carries on the risk management to the interest rate the place, the interest rate system change promotes the money market development. Finally, is advantageous in speeds up the microscopic main body the property right reform, interest rate marketability important condition is the state-owned enterprise and the state-owned commercial bank's property right must be clear. The property right is not clear, is not strong to the interest intrinsic budget restraint, exceeds the time limit the risk responsibility to attenuate, and cannot be keen to the interest rate reflection. At present, our country State-owned Commercial bank and very big part of state-owned enterprise's property right slurred, the interest rate market changed into its reform to provide the power, on objective impelled their property right reform.三．The interest rate marketability causes the state-owned commercial bank faced with to challenge sternlyThe interest rate marketability, is the historical stage which our country Commercial bank must pass through, can impel our country State-owned Commercial bank enormously the reform. But after the interest rate marketability, the interest rate level change does not decide, Our country Commercial bank which survives under the control possibly can develop the new financial tool for a long time to dodge the interest rate risk without enough time, will certainly to face the stern challenge, this displays in:1．Has enlarged the bank rate risk. After the interest rate marketability, the interest rate level ascension and the irregular undulation enlarge, intensified the bank vulnerability, ha have enlarged the bank rate risk. After the interest rate marketability, the interest rate level ascension and the irregular undulation enlarge, intensified the bank vulnerability, have the possibility to cause the bank crisis extremely the occurrence. As a result of our country long-term interest rate control, the interest rate by artificial force down, after the interest rate is let loose, the interest rate level can elevate inevitably. The analysis indicated that, in the credit activity, along with the real interest rate enhancement, the risk borrower more will become the bank by chance the customer, But loathes the risk originally the enterprise borrowers also favor in change oneself project the nature, enable it to have a higher risk and the income level. The cause property average horizontal drop in quality, the credit risk increases.Moreover, from looked for a long time that, the interest rate change the fund supply and demand real-time influence, can undulate frequently, but the interest rate undulation namely meant risk existence. How forecast accurately the interest rate change tendency, the reasonable determination has the competitive advantage price water; how assigns scientifically saves, the loan deadline layout, maintains the best advantage bad level;How forecast accurately the interest rate change tendency, the reasonable determination has the competitive advantage price water � How assigns scientifically saves, the loan deadline layout, maintains the best advantage bad level; How adjusts the property debt structure nimbly,Enhances prepares pays the level, the active control interest rate forms fluid wind �? How will supervise perfectly restricts the mechanism, prevented has human sentiment interest rate risk and so on, these will all cause the commercial bank faced with the stern test.2．Leads the service to the commercial bank to have the huge impact. Along with the interest rate marketability, various bank launches the intense contention superiority customer to save the loan war inevitably, the keen competition will cause to save the loan advantage difference large scale deflation. At the same time, the interest rate marketability impetus money market development, the massive enterprise temporary fund no longer rises in value through the deposit form, but is in the capital market, the money market puts in obtains the short-term to receive；Whether there is does the inhabitant also no longer excessively regard as important only contains the risk value deposit interest rate, pays attention contains the risk value the money market to receive �? The bank leadership service will be under the huge impact.It can be said, after interest rate marketability, bank true competition magic weapon instead outside interest rate method. Because the monetary fund is highly the homogeneity commodity, the grade of service is more important, highly effective, the low cost manages finances the service enable the customer to have a higher income, has the attraction to the customer.3．Proposed the challenge to the bank management and operation.Under interest rate control system, regardless of is the interest rate level or counts the rest method all to have the country to decide, regardless of how the country does adjust saves the loan interest rate, all fully considered commercial bank actual situation, maintains the reasonable advantage bad level throughout. Commercial bank's interest rate management is extremely simple, so long as gives according to the People's Bank the fluctuation scope carries out the national interest rate level then, the interest rate change is limited, the interest rate risk is controllable. In such situation, the bank management is inevitably passive. But in under the interest rate marketability condition, the intense market competition forces the bank either to use the price method, through raises the deposit interest rate, reduces the loan interest rate to attract the customer; Either depends upon the high quality service, through the function innovation, the product innovation, the technological innovation satisfies the customer. But this request commercial bank changes present the management, the method and the organization system.4．Proposed the challenge to the commercial bank staff quality. Along with interest rate marketability reform advancement quickening, the interest rate risk enlarge, will strengthen to the future interest rate trend analyzes and forecast oneself will be very urgent. The state-owned commercial bank seeks the financial professional who needs one batch of this aspect high quality, not only these people must have the deep theory foundation of basic skills, but also must have the rich commercial bank practice experience, Both must thoroughly understand the domestic interest rate change the undulation condition, and must be skilled in the forecast interest rate change tendency. But the present state-owned bank lacks generally can promptly effectively the control and the circumvention interest rate risk tool and the interest rate risk management professional, to the interest rate trend development forecast, the risk recognition and control is weak.四．The state-owned commercial bank should to strategyAlong with the interest rate marketability advancement, the interest rate is more and more big to the state-owned commercial bank's influence, in this situation, the state-owned commercial bank should seek positively should to the strategy.1．Establishment finance product fixed price system. In the interest rate marketability situation, whether does the commercial bank draw up a science reasonable fixed price system, has the nimble effective quoted price ability, the realization risk �? Between 20 income balances,Is key which whether it does develop continually. In this process, must establish the effective comprehensive income reckoning system, the overall evaluation customer comprehensive income which brings to the commercial bank，The customer credit risk size, the loan deadline length is the interest rate risk size, as well as commercial bank's collection fund cost and the operation cost share and so on the aspect questions。2．Increases the middle service product development ability, the adjustment profit structure. After the interest rate marketability, the bank saves, the loan favorable difference reduces, the profit level reduces, and this request state-owned commercial bank must develop the middle service vigorously. The bank may while develop positively receives on another's behalf, pays on another's behalf and so on service, uses the commercial bank market main body qualifications fully, positively provides the proxy for other financial organ to distribute the bond, the silver card account transfer, the proxy insures, the fund trust, the broker manages finances, The property management, financial consultant, the investment consultation and so on, enhances the middle service to buy a girl child, on own initiative develops the low risk, the high income middle service new variety positively, promotes the bank large scale by this profit ability, promotes the bank sustainable development.3．Establishes nimbly, the highly effective interest rate management organization, trains the interest rate managerial talent vigorously. According to the Bethel bank supervising and managing committee about the bank effective supervising and managing core principle request, under the interest rate marketability environment, various commercial bank must set up the specialized interest rate risk management department, manages and instructs the entire good interest rate work, Coordinates and coordinates inside and outside the bank to be connected the work. The interest rate control section's most important task is carries on the comprehensive interest rate sensitive tube on the bank asset debt level ; Exterior determination, internal advantage � The definite general headquarters to branch office's interest rate authorization, are responsible for staff interest rate risk management training and so on. In addition, but also should establish the high interest rate information communication channel, after the interest rate marketability, the commercial bank interior enhances greatly about the interest rate information transmission effectiveness, guarantees can transmit promptly general headquarters formulation each interest rate to commercial bank's any business mesh point, guarantees the commercial bank interest rate policy the unity.4．Speeds up the state-owned commercial bank the property right reform. Stipulated according to "Law of corporation" that, the commercial bank belongs to the competitive profession, does not need to adopt the state-owned sole ownership property right, and does not have the legal barrier to its joint stock system transformation. To the state-owned commercial bank's property right reform, its concrete transformation form establishes the joint stock system commercial bank. The reality in China, in accordance with international practice, and gradually achieve solely by the state to transform the state-owned holding company, and ultimately joint-stock limited companies, and establish corporate system of corporate governance institutions, the establishment of the right to operate, ownership and the right to supervise the separation of the framework, China's commercial banks to become real significance of commercial banks, do business operations.字太多，发布下，你再见个问题吧，我回答。率市场化与我国国有商业银行对策利率市场化的内涵所谓利率市场化，是指金融市场资金供求双方自主确定利率水平的利率决定机制的变迁过程。具体讲，利率市场化是指中央银行根据货币政策的需要调控基准利率，各商业银行根据资金市场的供求变化自主调节存贷款利率，最终形成以中央银行基准利率为引导，多层次、能够充分体现资金供求状况和反映中央银行货币政策意图的利率运行机制。利率市场化强调利率真实地反映资金成本与供求关系，灵活有效地发挥其经济杠杆作用.
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纯英文的行不行啊？
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INTO THE STORMFOR much of the past year the fast-growing economies of the emerging world watched the Western financial hurricane from afar. Their own banks held few of the mortgage-based assets that undid the rich world’s financial firms. Commodity exporters were thriving, thanks to high prices for raw materials. China’s economic juggernaut powered on. And, from Budapest to Brasília, an abundance of credit fuelled domestic demand. Even as talk mounted of the rich world suffering its worst financial collapse since the Depression, emerging economies seemed a long way from the centre of the storm.过去一年的大部分时间里，高速发展的新兴国家一直在远处观望着西方国家的金融风暴。他们的银行仅持有少量抵押资产，而类似的资产已经破坏了发达国家的金融公司。商品出口商因为原材料的高价格而日渐富有。中国不可抗拒的经济力量已然开启，而且信贷刺激的内需从布达佩斯到巴西利亚都表现得非常充足。尽管大萧条后关于西方国家受难于金融崩塌的话题与日俱增，但新兴国家似乎距离金融风暴的中心还有一段距离。No longer. As foreign capital has fled and confidence evaporated, the emerging world’s stockmarkets have plunged (in some cases losing half their value) and currencies tumbled. The seizure in the credit market caused havoc, as foreign banks abruptly stopped lending and stepped back from even the most basic banking services, including trade credits.不过目前的情况不再是那样了，随着境外资本的流失和经济信心的消失，新兴国家股市暴跌（有些地区已经腰斩），本币迅速贬值。由于外国银行突然中断贷款，并且收缩了包括贸易信贷在内的基础银行服务，新兴国家的信贷市场突发混乱，并引发了一场浩劫。Like their rich-world counterparts, governments are battling to limit the damage (see article). That is easiest for those with large foreign-exchange reserves. Russia is spending $220 billion to shore up its financial services industry. South Korea has guaranteed $100 billion of its banks’ debt. Less well-endowed countries are asking for help. Hungary has secured a EURO5 billion ($6.6 billion) lifeline from the European Central Bank and is negotiating a loan from the IMF, as is Ukraine. Close to a dozen countries are talking to the fund about financial help.新兴国家的政府和发达国家的政府一样都在为控制损失程度而奋斗。不过对于外汇储备充足的国家来说难度会小一些：俄罗斯斥资2200亿美元重振金融服务行业；韩国政府担保了1000亿美元的银行债务。而那些储备并不充足的国家正在四处求援：匈牙利成功向欧洲央行求得了50亿欧元（约66亿美元）的生命线，同时也在同国际货币基金组织协商借款事宜，同时向国际货币基金组织求援的还有乌克兰。近一打儿的国家在向基金组织求助。Those with long-standing problems are being driven to desperate measures. Argentina is nationalising its private pension funds, seemingly to stave off default (see article). But even stalwarts are looking weaker. Figures released this week showed that China’s growth slowed to 9% in the year to the third quarter-still a rapid pace but a lot slower than the double-digit rates of recent years.有持续问题的国家正棋行险招：阿根廷正在将私人养老金国有化，意图阻止违约的发生。即使强有力的国家也表现出虚弱一面：本周公布的数字表明今年中国的增长率在第三季度减缓为9%，虽然增速还算快，但是与近些年的两位数增率相比缓慢了不少。Blowing cold on credit对信贷没兴趣The various emerging economies are in different states of readiness, but the cumulative impact of all this will be enormous. Most obviously, how these countries fare will determine whether the world economy faces a mild recession or something nastier. Emerging economies accounted for around three-quarters of global growth over the past 18 months. But their economic fate will also have political consequences.众多新兴经济的意愿并不相同，但是累计在一起的影响力却非同一般。最明显的就是这些国家的表现将会决定世界经济所面临的是一个较为缓和的衰退还是更可怕的情况。在过去18个月的全球经济增长中，新兴经济贡献了75%。但是他们的经济命运也会有一些政治后果。In many places-eastern Europe is one example (see article)-financial turmoil is hitting weak governments. But even strong regimes could suffer. Some experts think that China needs growth of 7% a year to contain social unrest. More generally, the coming strife will shape the debate about the integration of the world economy. Unlike many previous emerging-market crises, today’s mess spread from the rich world, largely thanks to increasingly integrated capital markets. If emerging economies collapse-either into a currency crisis or a sharp recession-there will be yet more questioning of the wisdom of globalised finance.在类似东欧的很多地区，金融混乱目前的打击目标是软弱的政府；但强硬的政权同样会尝到苦果。一些专家认为中国每年需要7%的增长率来阻止社会动荡的发生。总体来说，如此争端必将影响全球经济一体化的讨论。与以往数次新兴经济危机不同，这次的混乱始于发达国家，很大程度上要归咎于一体化的资本市场。一旦新兴经济崩溃，无论是货币危机还是剧烈的经济萧条，大家对于金融全球化是否属明智之举会有更多的质疑。Fortunately, the picture is not universally dire. All emerging economies will slow. Some will surely face deep recessions. But many are facing the present danger in stronger shape than ever before, armed with large reserves, flexible currencies and strong budgets. Good policy-both at home and in the rich world-can yet avoid a catastrophe.幸运的是上述恐怖的场景没有发生在全球的每个角落：所有的新兴经济都会减缓发展速度，有一些也必将面临深度萧条；但是更多的国家在面临当下危机的时候却拥有比以往任何时候都强壮的形式，用充足的储备、弹性的货币和强大的预算武装自己。新兴国家及发达国家良好的政策可以避免大灾难的发生。One reason for hope is that the direct economic fallout from the rich world’s disaster is manageable. Falling demand in America and Europe hurts exports, particularly in Asia and Mexico. Commodity prices have fallen: oil is down nearly 60% from its peak and many crops and metals have done worse. That has a mixed effect. Although it hurts commodity-exporters from Russia to South America, it helps commodity importers in Asia and reduces inflation fears everywhere. Countries like Venezuela that have been run badly are vulnerable (see article), but given the scale of the past boom, the commodity bust so far seems unlikely to cause widespread crises.至少有一个原因值得抱有希望：发达国家此次灾难的直接经济影响还是在可控的范围内。欧美锐减的需求对出口来说无疑是一个打击，特别是对亚洲和墨西哥。商品价格走低：原油价格与巅峰时期比较已经下降了60%，很多粮食和金属类商品跌幅更大。这两个现象有混合效果：尽管从俄罗斯到南美的商品（能源）出口企业备受打击，但却帮助了亚洲的商品（能源）进口商，并且缓和了各地对通胀的恐惧。委内瑞拉的情形一直很糟糕，也很脆弱；不过由于过去极度的繁荣，商品价格下跌目前还不会引发大范围传播的危机。The more dangerous shock is financial. Wealth is being squeezed as asset prices decline. China’s house prices, for instance, have started falling (see article). This will dampen domestic confidence, even though consumers are much less indebted than they are in the rich world. Elsewhere, the sudden dearth of foreign-bank lending and the flight of hedge funds and other investors from bond markets has slammed the brakes on credit growth. And just as booming credit once underpinned strong domestic spending, so tighter credit will mean slower growth.比商品价格更令人震惊的事情发生在金融领域。由于资产价格的下降，财富水平正在被挤压缩水。以中国房价为例，目前已经开始下跌。尽管新兴国家的消费者比发达国家的负债水平低很多，上述情况还是会挫伤国内的经济信心。在其他方面，国外银行借款骤然匮乏、对冲基金以及其他投资者逃离债券市场，这些因素给信贷增长踩了一脚急刹车。正如发达的信贷曾经强力支撑国内支出那样，信贷紧缩将意味着增长放缓。Again, the impact will differ by country. Thanks to huge current-account surpluses in China and the oil-exporters in the Gulf, emerging economies as a group still send capital to the rich world. But over 80 have deficits of more than 5% of GDP. Most of these are poor countries that live off foreign aid; but some larger ones rely on private capital. For the likes of Turkey and South Africa a sudden slowing in foreign financing would force a dramatic adjustment. A particular worry is eastern Europe, where many countries have double-digit deficits. In addition, even some countries with surpluses, such as Russia, have banks that have grown accustomed to easy foreign lending because of the integration of global finance. The rich world’s bank bail-outs may limit the squeeze, but the flow of capital to the emerging world will slow. The Institute of International Finance, a bankers’ group, expects a 30% decline in net flows of private capital from last year.需要再次重申的是，冲击的表现会因国家的不同而有所区别。多亏中国和海湾产油国经常项目下的巨额顺差，新型经济整体还不断的向发达国家输送资本。但是80 多个国家的财政赤字已经超过GDP的5%，其中的多数是那些依靠国外救助过活得贫困国家；不过也有一些依靠私人资本的大国。对于类似土耳其和南非的国家来说，突然减缓的境外融资迫使其进行大幅调整。东欧的情况特别令人担忧，那里的不少国家赤字水平已经达到了两位数。另外，象俄罗斯这样处于顺差的国家，其银行也逐渐适应了可以轻易从外国取得的贷款，原因自然是全球金融一体化。发达国家的救助计划也许可以限制财富被挤压的水平，但资本流向新兴世界的速度无疑会减慢。国际金融研协会预测私人资本的净流量比去年回减少30%。A wing and a prayer飞行之翼与祈祷者This credit crunch will be grim, but most emerging markets can avoid catastrophe. The biggest ones are in relatively good shape. The more vulnerable ones can (and should) be helped.信贷紧缩必将令人生畏，不过多数新兴市场可以躲过一劫，最大的市场形势还相当不错。比较脆弱的市场可以（也应该）得到帮助。Among the giants, China is in a league of its own, with a $2 trillion arsenal of reserves, a current-account surplus, little connection to foreign banks and a budget surplus that offers lots of room to boost spending. Since the country’s leaders have made clear that they will do whatever it takes to cushion growth, China’s economy is likely to slow-perhaps to 8%-but not collapse. Although that is not enough to save the world economy, such growth in China would put a floor under commodity prices and help other countries in the emerging world.在那些坚强的巨人中，中国卓然不群：手握2万亿美元的储备，经常项下的顺差状态，与国外银行罕有关联，过剩的预算给推动支出留有足够空间。鉴于国家领导人已经明确表示将不惜一切代价为经济增长减速缓冲，中国的经济增长应该会减缓到大约8%的水平，但是决不会崩溃。虽然这不足以挽救世界经济，但是该增长率将会为商品价格建底并帮到新兴世界的其他国家。The other large economies will be harder hit, but should be able to weather the storm. India has a big budget deficit and many Brazilian firms have a large foreign-currency exposure. But Brazil’s economy is diversified and both countries have plenty of reserves to smooth the shift to slower growth. With $550 billion of reserves, Russia ought to be able to stop a run on the rouble. In the short-term at least, the most vulnerable countries are all smaller ones.其他的经济大国会受到更大的冲击，不过应该可以禁受住风暴侵袭。印度的财政赤字巨大，巴西很多公司面临巨大的外汇风险。但巴西经济已经实现多样化，同时上述两个国家拥有充足的储备来平稳过渡到缓慢的增长。俄罗斯掌握着5500亿美元的储备，应该能够阻止对卢布的抢购。至少在短期内，小国家才是最弱不禁风的。There will be pain as tighter credit forces adjustments. But sensible, speedy international assistance would make a big difference. Several emerging countries have asked America’s Federal Reserve for liquidity support; some hope that China will bail them out. A better route is surely the IMF, which has huge expertise and some $250 billion to lend. Sadly, borrowing from the fund carries a stigma. That needs to change. The IMF should develop quicker, more flexible financial instruments and minimise the conditions it attaches to loans. Over the past month deft policymaking saw off calamity in the rich world. Now it is time for something similar in the emerging world.受到紧缩信贷压力进行的调整必然带来痛苦，但快速的国际援助是明智之举，因为这会让结果很不相同。一些新兴国家已经向美联储求援以缓解流动性问题；有一些则希望中国可以拯救他们与水火。更佳的求救路线莫过于国际货币基金组织，因为它掌握大量的专门知识和2500亿美元的可出借款项。不幸的是人们认为向基金借款有辱其名，国际货币基金组织应该推出更快捷、更灵活的金融工具，同时实现借贷条件最小化。过去数月中，机敏的决策驱散了发达国家的灾难。现在也正是新兴世界发生类似事情的时候了。
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Too-big-to-fail: Bank failure and banking policy in Jamaica J. Daleya, , , K. Matthewsb and K. Whitfieldb aDepartment of Management Studies, University of the West Indies, Mona, Kingston 7, Jamaica bCardiff Business School, Cardiff University, Colum Drive, Cardiff, CF10 3EU Wales, UK Received 7 October 2005; accepted 16 December 2006. Available online 22 December 2006. Abstract Research on the causes of bank failure has focused on developed countries, particularly the United States of America. Relatively little empirical work has examined developing countries. We examine the total population of banks in Jamaica between 1992 and 1998 and find that real GDP growth, size, and managerial efficiency were the most significant factors contributing to the failure of banks. Bank failure is defined to include bailout and regulator-induced or supervised merger. Our results suggest that there were implicit ‘too-big-to-fail’ policies during this period. Keywords: Bank failures; Too-big-to-fail; Developing economies; Jamaica JEL classification codes: G21; G28 Article Outline 1. Introduction 2. Bank failure in Jamaica 3. Bank failure literature 4. Data and methodology 5. The likelihood of failure 6. Failure and bail-out 7. Conclusion Acknowledgements Appendix A. Pool of variables References 1. Introduction The last decade of the 20th century was unprecedented in Jamaica's financial history. Of a population of 37 banks, 21 were classified as failed, with 14 being so classified in 1 year—1998. However, few outright closures occurred. Most problem banks were merged with other banks, or continued to operate through financial support from the government. More than a half of domestic banks received some kind of financial support from the government, initiated voluntary bankruptcy proceedings or surrendered their licences. Explanations for such banking problems vary. Empirical research on bank failures separates the causal factors into bank-specific, industry-specific, macroeconomic and other. However, much of the debate on developing countries has neglected banks at the individual level, and has focused on the problems faced at the sector or industry level. Moreover, the (often conflicting) results of existing studies do not offer inferences about the factors that are particularly significant in developing countries, or to those that are significant to the failure of individual banks, or to the fate of problem banks. This paper addresses the following questions: what factors were significant in the banking crisis in Jamaica? What factors influenced how the crisis was handled and was there an implicit too-big-to-fail (TBtF) policy? What are the lessons for bank regulators in developing economies that can assist in better preparedness for the future? To address these questions, the within-sample performance of a panel of Jamaican banks is examined. Some of the factors identified as contributing to failure include deterioration in the macroeconomic environment, rapid expansion and weakness in a range of bank-specific factors: capital, management, and liquidity. The size results are particularly significant and point to the operation of implicit ‘TBtF’ policies. Larger banks are more likely to fail, but are also more likely to be bailed out rather than closed. The next section discusses the banking crisis in Jamaica. Section 3 reviews the literature on bank failures. Section 4 discusses data and methodology. Sections Sections 5 and 6 present the results, and Section 7 concludes. 2. Bank failure in Jamaica The term ‘bank failure’ has been interpreted varyingly. The more precise definitions have focused on accounting factors (for example, [Martin, 1977] and [Benston and Kaufman, 1995]), economic factors ([Bell et al., 1990] and [González-Hermosillo et al., 1997]), or legal factors (Meyer and Pifer, 1970). Conversely, more general definitions have attempted to be all-inclusive and have applied a ‘catch-all’ combination of specific definitions (for example, Thomson, 1992). Using a general definition of ‘bank failure’ embracing closure, bankruptcy, supervised merger, or direct government assistance, we assess the population of banks in Jamaica over the period 1992–1998.1 Table 1 shows a comparative profile of the Jamaican banking sector before and after the crisis. Table 1. Banking system profile: pre- and post-banking crisis Jamaican banking sector
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