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翻译一篇外国文献当毕业论文

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翻译一篇外国文献当毕业论文

毕业论文写作过程中阅读翻译外文文献是一个非常重要的环节,尤其是研究生同学,一般导师都会要求阅读一定数量的英文文献,这是因为许多领域高水平的文献都是外文文献,借鉴一些外文文献翻译的经验是非常必要的。

如何写开题报告,如何写文献综述,如何阅读外文文献,可以说,阅读一定数量的外文文献是毕业论文写作的必经之路。

要求如下:

1、前言

简要说明写作的目的,有关的概念以及综述范围,说明有关主题的现状或争论焦点,所要解决的问题等。一般以 100~200 字为宜,使读者在读完前言后对有关问题获得一个初步的轮廓。

2、主体

主体部分是全文的主要部分,具体写法以能较好地表达综述的内容为准则。通常根据内容的多少,将主体部分分为几段,每段有小标题。

可按年代顺序综述。也可按不同的问题进行综述,还可按不同的观点进行比较综述,不管用那一种格式综述,都要将所搜集到的文献资料归纳、整理及分析比较,阐明有关主题的历史背景、现状和发展方向,以及对这些问题的评述。

主题部分应特别注意代表性强、具有科学性和创造性的文献引用和评述。

主体部分每一段落的开始应是综合提炼出来的观点,即论点;接着是文献所提出的实验结果或调查事实,即论据,可见主体部分是按论点和论据组织材料的。

总之,综述主体部分是以综合概括的论点开头引路,继之以诸家的资料、实验结果为论据展开层次论证。所以,综述也是一种论证文章的体裁,只是论点与论据都是前人文献所提供。

如果前人的观点分散或不甚明确,则需作者整理概括,成为开头。在论述某些观点时,作者可有倾向性,但对相反的观点也应简要如实列出。对存在的矛盾和问题应充分如实描述。

3、总结

常见的方式有:

①扼要的概括、精练主题部分的主要内容;

②介绍尚待解决的问题及对前景的展望;

③某些篇幅较小的综述,也可以省略结束语。

4、参考文献

通常凡引述的资料和主要的论点都应注明文献出处,以便使读者检索查阅。所引文献应以近 3 年内者为主;另外,未公开发表的资料不宜作为参考文献。

在我国许多期刊希望列出重要的参考文献,一般限为 20~30 条为宜;但国际上许多生物医学期刊的综述文章,其参考文献甚多,全篇所列文献常达数百条之多。参考文献的著录格式国内尚不统一,应按各刊「投稿须知」要求撰写。

扩展资料:

1、如何查询国内专利文献

可通过中国国家知识产权局()和中国专利信息中心()网站上的「专利检索」。

可以免费检索全部中国专利信息(有文摘)。如需获取专利全文,则需前去中国国家知识产权局查阅,也可通过 CSDL 馆际互借和原文传递系统代为办理。

2、如何查询国外专利文献

科学院用户可首先选择查询 Web of Knowledge 中Derwent Innovations Index (德温特世界专利索引),它是检索专利的权威数据库,收录全球了 40 多个专利机构的 900 万条基本专利,1800 万项专利,该库大部分有文摘,小部分有全文。

3、其它可供利用的网上免费数据库

欧洲专利局专利数据库:

 (免费 文摘)

美国专利商标局专利数据库:

(免费 文摘、全文)

WTO知识产权组织:

(免费 文摘)

IBM专利数据库资源:

(免费 文摘、部分全文)

更多请参见中国专利信息网上的(国外)专利网站:

你好,毕业论文要求翻译一篇外文文献,这个我也做过。对于参考文献部分(reference)是不用翻译的,你只要把论文题目,摘要,关键词,介绍,实验,结果与讨论,结论这些翻译就可以了。可能有的学校要求不一样,你可以问一下你的导师或者带你的研究生。大多数是不用翻译参考文献的。还有什么问题可以继续问。满意的话采纳一下。

毕业论文外文翻译:将外文参考文献翻译成中文版本。

翻译要求:

1、选定外文文献后先给指导老师看,得到老师的确认通过后方可翻译。

2、选择外文翻译时一定选择外国作者写的文章,可从学校中知网或者外文数据库下载。

3、外文翻译字数要求3000字以上,从外文文章起始处开始翻译,不允许从文章中间部分开始翻译,翻译必须结束于文章的一个大段落。

参考文献是在学术研究过程中,对某一著作或论文的整体的参考或借鉴.征引过的文献在注释中已注明,不再出现于文后参考文献中。外文参考文献就是指论文是引用的文献原文是国外的,并非中国的。

原文就是指原作品,原件,即作者所写作品所用的语言。如莎士比亚的《罗密欧与朱丽叶》原文是英语。 译文就是翻译过来的文字,如在中国也可以找到莎士比亚《罗密欧与朱丽叶》的中文版本,这个中文版本就称为译文 。

扩展资料:

外文翻译需要注意的问题

1、外文文献的出处不要翻译成中文,且写在中文译文的右上角(不是放在页眉处);会议要求:名称、地点、年份、卷(期),等 。

2、作者姓名以及作者的工作单位也不用必须翻译。

3、abstract翻译成“摘要”,不要翻译成“文章摘要”等其他词语。

4、Key words翻译成“关键词” 。

5、introduction 翻译成“引言”(不是导言)。

6、各节的标号I、II等可以直接使用,不要再翻译成“第一部分”“第二部分”,等。

7、注意排版格式,都是单排版,行距,字号小4号,等(按照格式要求)。

8、里面的图可以拷贝粘贴,但要将图标、横纵指标的英文标注翻译成中文。

9、里面的公式、表不可以拷贝粘贴,要自己重新录入、重新画表格。

现在知网查重有一项是外国文献,指的就是翻译过来的文章。绝大多数都会被查到。

毕业论文提交一篇外文翻译

外文翻译,通常指的是本科毕业前毕业论文中的一项工作。外文翻译,通常指的是本科毕业前毕业论文中的一项工作。需要学生找一篇与毕业论文方向相似的英文文献。

给的意见确实很中肯。第一次投让大修,第二次小修,再后来就录用了。按照意见修改后文章确实充实很多,更有说服力,尤其是对我这种第一次发文章的人来说,真的能学到很多东西。找北京译顶科技,性价比高,我就是在那边做的。知道更多可以加速去知道了解下。

意思是将外文参考文献翻译成中文版本。选定外文文献后先给指导看,得到的确认通过后方可翻译,选择外文翻译时一定选择外国作者写的文章,可从学校中知网或者外文库,外文翻译字数要求3000字以上,从外文文章起始处开始翻译,不允许从文章中间部分开始翻译,翻译必须结束于文章的一个大段落。

计算机专业方面的外文翻译都是找wo拿参考 。

毕业论文外文翻译翻几篇

阅读翻译外文文献是毕业论文撰写过程中一个非常重要的环节。毕业论文外文文献翻译应采取的策略包括研读原文、提纲表达、修改润色等。毕业论文外文文献翻译的技巧主要包括词类转换技巧、结构调整技巧、被动句的翻译技巧等。一毕业论文外文文献翻译外文文献包括英文、俄文、德文、法文、日文等多语种文献,本文以最通用的英文作为叙述语种。从近几年毕业论文外文文献翻译情况来看,一些学生翻译出来的文献内容不自然、不流畅、难懂、费解,甚至不知所云。究其原因,主要是由于学生普遍使用了Google“翻译”频道、金山词霸和CNKI“翻译助手”等翻译软件所致,并没有掌握翻译的基本方法与技巧,严重影响了外文文献翻译的质量。随着科学技术的迅猛发展和信息时代的到来,电子翻译(EleetroniCTarnslation)系统被人们广泛应用,但目前的电子翻译软件尚不完善,在翻译的过程中仍存在一些问题。现存翻译软件只是停留在单词与单词的直接转换阶段,一旦遇到一词多义的情况,系统便无法自行做出正确选择,译文也就会出错。而人工翻译则是通过对上下文的理解及长期的文化知识积累,准确地选择词义的。翻译人员通常只是参考词汇译文的意义,对于句子的表达方式则根据具体情况进行灵活地处理。机译的工作原理决定了翻译软件充其量只能达到人脑翻译的科学性要求,根本无法达到高度的艺术性的要求。基于此,学生不应盲目使用翻译软件,而应掌握一些翻译的策略和技巧,加强翻译训练,不断提高自身的翻译水平。二毕业论文外文文献翻译的基本策略01研读原文毕业论文外文文献翻译首先应真正读懂原文。具体来说,就是要理解句子和文献的真正含义,明确原文的主旨,准确理解原文内容本身的含义及与之相关的外延和内涵,还应抓住原文的中心思想和寓意,根据上下文理顺逻辑关系,确保文理清晰、译文准确。02提纲表达其次,应在透彻理解原文的基础上,写出译文提纲。首先,要研究文献的语法内容,如语态、时态等;要研究句子的结构,如恰当的词汇和句型等;要研究遣词用句,如充实单词或句子等。其次,要依照逻辑思维和语篇层次理顺全文。03修改润色译文初稿形成后,应从语法上检查,从语篇上分析,从逻辑上推敲,与原文对照,查看是否有错译漏译现象,看看有没有不合适和不通顺的尚需要进行润色加工的地方。三毕业论文外文文献翻译的技巧翻译并非简单的文字词汇互换,它涉及语言结构、思维模式、风俗习惯、社会文化、传播媒介等方方面面的知识,需要运用恰当的翻译方法和技巧,准确通顺地将一种语言文字转换成另一种语言文字。毕业论文外文文献翻译的技巧主要包括词类转换技巧、结构调整技巧和被动句的翻译技巧等。

看你是什么级别的毕业论文了,名校博士的话别说是一篇文章,一本书也可能得全部翻译。而渣校本科生可能也就翻译个三五千字的小文献,大型的那种几十万字的文章也就翻译个重点段落就可以了。

外文翻译是你上网上查询一篇文章,和你的设计题目相似的英文文章,然后自己翻译过来,这就是外文翻译,篇幅必须长一点,因为一般毕业设计都要有字数限制。文献综述一般就是把你所用到的资料都一一介绍一下,不要很具体,因为论文是文献综述的具体介绍,文献综述中还包括一些与设计题目有关的现实描述。

看你们学校的字数要求,字数够了就不用再翻译了

外文翻译是要把一整篇论文翻译吗

有字数或字符数要求看你们学校的要求了

肯定是可以的啊,不过这个工作量比较大,找网站翻译的话,很多是不准确的,你可以去找北京译顶科技帮忙啊,他们那边都是人工翻译的

当然是翻译整篇论文啊,不然你觉得翻译什么啊,你要是英文不是很好的话,就去找清北医学翻译给你翻译,那边都是翻译高手

一般是的,借助翻译软件还是很快的有些学校是说翻译的中文数字达到一定的数量,这样对应的英文就可能不是一整篇,不过这也无所谓,找一篇英文少一点的,随便翻译就可以了

国外论文文献一万字翻译

The MWC can operate with as few as p = 2N channels and with a sampling rate fs = 1/T > B on each channel,so that it approaches the minimal rate of 2NB. Advanced configurations enable additional hardware savings bycollapsing the number of branches p by a factor of q at the expense of increasing the sampling rate of each channelby the same factor [109]. The choice of periodic functions pi(t) is flexible: The highest Dirac frequency needsto exceed fmax. In principle, any periodic function with high-speed transitions within the period T can satisfythis requirement. One possible choice for pi(t) is a sign-alternating function, with M = 2L + 1 sign intervalswithin the period T [109, 161]. Imperfect sign alternations are allowed as long as periodicity is maintained [9].This property is crucial since precise sign alternations at high speeds are extremely difficult to maintain, whereassimple hardware wirings ensure that pi(t) = pi(t + Tp) for every t 2 R. The waveforms pi(t) need low mutualcorrelation in order to capture different mixtures of the spectrum. Popular binary patterns, ., the Gold or Kasamisequences, are especially suitable for the MWC [161]. Another important practical design aspect is that the lowpassfilter h(t) does not have to be ideal. A nonflat frequency response can be compensated for in the digital domain,using the algorithm developed in [162].

Industrial design and product relations1995 -1997, created the Apple personal computer company in the stock market continued to decline times, too, were several acquisitions. Companies had requested the original Apple CEO Steve Qiaobusi back. 1998 Apple computer company officially launched a brand-new release of the Apple iMac computer concepts, the traditional separation between the server PC, monitors and integrated box, and discarded the rice yellow line frames, with translucent warrants, five colors of colour frames. Despite the iMac in technology and skills are not too happy, and prices higher than other computers hundreds dollars, but the products on the market, has been warmly welcomed in the United States, when almost every 15 seconds one iMac was sold, Apple stock with the rapid rise, setting off an unprecedented industry boom. September 1998, the . market research company PC Data authority statistics show that : listed only in the end of August l7 days iMac rapidly among American computer market size No. 2. December 1998, PC Data reports : in the . retail market in November 1998 and two ranking order, the high top, with an estimated total . PC sales of and total income of total retail. According to estimates, industrial appearance every dollar invested, can bring about 1,500 . dollars of income. Japanese company Hitachi is more convincing data, the company each additional 100 billion yen in sales revenue, the role of industrial design as 51%, and the transformation of the role of equipment only 12%. We have seen the market rise, and, more importantly, we see many enterprises in the market, causing storms. While some enterprises, some enterprises to grow. The secret? Because of the dynamics of the environment and long-term business objectives based on real understanding of what is the real core products can create their core products, how to make their own core products to achieve their own values. This is before every enterprise in the world before some of the most realistic, is the world's best successful enterprise solution, of course, is all our enterprises should address one of the largest. Only solve the problem, so that our businesses can truly out of the current deadlock, but also enable the modern enterprise mechanism in the Chinese enterprises to take root and my business really grow in size and strength. Market competition determine any enterprise can only continue to strive to continuously advance, otherwise one day be replaced by other competitors, the community was abandoned. This requires enterprises only continuous innovation. Now sense throughout all levels of product innovation is no longer confined to technical innovation, image innovation, but has entered a new era of standards. Whoever grasps the design standards, grasps the market, the lack of innovation will always be at the bottom of the world. From the products produced by the development process of decline in the birth of one of the initial products are mainly technical standards competition, open technical standards competition, and occupied a consumer market psychology. In a permanent, mainly in the use of saturation comfort, appearance, and post-sales service and product costs in the competition emphasizes personalized consumption, the volume of excess of the needs of consumers for products increasingly detailed. Simple packaging, crude appearance, will be unable to attract the eyes of consumers. Today, in addition to the commodity value of the cost of materials, labour costs, equipment depreciation and the cost of transport and other physical "hard" value, it also includes technical novelty, relevance, quality products overall design, after-sale services and products, such as intangible cultural "soft" values, with the consumption of renewal and the continued development of the market, soft value in the proportion of the value of goods is increasing. Same products, same function, the same production costs, due to differences in design may make the price difference times. Therefore, the design of a product is not enterprise general relevance. Product life and the value of life products with business interests are inseparable. This decision is a product of life it can bring to the enterprise profits when products can not bring profits to the enterprise, the products will come to the time of the withdrawal from the stage of history. Short product life, may lead to loss of enterprises, so that enterprises carried a heavy debt burden. Therefore, its social value may also smaller. Now the market due to technical update pace of change and the concept of accelerated consumption, product life gradually shortened. So how to extend the life of products is an issue we need to address. Good design can be appropriately extended product lifetime, and ensure appropriate returns. 1) Strengthening the protection and high-tech inventions and patents further escalation. As has been said, technology shorten product life, but we can extend the product life of the technical approach? Is is impeding social progress? I think every one of the enterprises have no such super capacity addition and the overall trend of social acceptance, is to be eliminated sooner or later. We want to look carefully, they would understand the various causes. There are a lot of high-tech, created, in the shortest possible time will be interpreted, thereby producing many of the deformation techniques similar version bypass patent barriers to enter the market. Like weeds, look at the world. This will promote competition, forcing the market quickly to saturation period, profitability will quickly decline. For its patented technology technical protection is very necessary. We welcome legitimate market competition, but our market's poor, a full understanding of a self-protection. But for the legitimate competition, we should continually tap the potential of technology and continuously upgrade it and improve it and make it progressive advances, and always maintain high profit margins. This is what we should strive to achieve through the design. 2) appearance with personality, rich cultural details. This should also fall within the patent technology, but in view of a profit contribution in the process prominent role, we will separate it. Companies from Apple examples, we can clearly see that when technology into relatively stable, good product image stability will allow us to the same, higher than the industry average profit returns, and this will extend the product life alternative. 3) to reduce costs. Continuous cost reduction, which is the process of production enterprises in the constant search for improved focus is the eternal topic. Only reduce costs, increase profits can be achieved, can occupy the dominant position in the market competition. Moreover, the centrality of innovation in technology innovation, product innovation and technology innovation is the pilot with the necessary conditions to craft innovative product innovation. Therefore, we once again deepened the understanding of the importance of industrial design. It is the driving force behind the development of industrial design in harmony (technology, culture, image, as a result of, the cost of reunification) unremitting pursuit. This pursuit is spontaneous, natural. It is this desire for harmony with the quest for socio-economic development has become a strong driving force. That science and technology are our productivity, because it can promote social and economic development. In the history of mankind, with their high-tech industrial design is the bridge is the link between business and consumers. At the same time, industrial design also promote competition in the market, linking technology and markets, and create good products and the media, was the difference in the commodity and create high value-added and create new markets for the sub-market, reduce costs. Increasing competition in a globalized economy, the industrial design is becoming an important business resources. "Industrial design can become important to the enterprise resources, and promote the economic and social development, mainly in the people not only meet the growing material needs but also to meet people's spiritual needs. Secondly, the industrial design brought about, not only the entire spirit and the enjoyment and, more importantly, it can change people's way of life. Industrial design is the intended purpose and concepts specific, entity, means it is the economic activities of the first building process. Its essence was to be art activities for the economic construction of the ideas and planning. Generally speaking, this was conceived and planned progress, development, and even advance. In this sense, and on industrial design is a driving force for promoting social development. But in the eyes of a considerable part of the enterprise, industrial design product designs become full. Only a good product is not enough money beauty lifetime, industrial architects need not only imaginative, more importantly, to enable consumers to enjoy the products in the entire process more comfortable, safe, convenient, economical, operational interface more humane, more friendly. One can pick the care of patients who use wheelchairs may be more convenient, a delicate the Luminous remote control device will make people more relaxed watching television. Using waste paper recycling furniture and more environmentally friendly. Great to aircraft manufacturing, small to Tixudao design, industrial design is the essence of human-centred. Industrial designers to really meet social trends, the technology now truly meet the needs of society : 1) the use of microelectronics technology and the development of new materials, new technology enabled people to use as a trend. 2) people's lives, and patterns of the rich diversity and subtle meaning. People are increasingly seeking independent living, the pursuit of personality play at the same time would like to have emotional exchanges, the spirit of enjoyment. 3) environmental issues to create a diversification value in the design, attention to efforts to make these values in the human, social, environmental harmony between the lines of each other always, trying to find their common areas. Only then can we set our own true industrial designer image if industrial designers can achieve people-oriented design concept, the only way designers can truly serve the industrial community. ---------论文网<工业设计与产品的关系>

INTO THE STORMFOR much of the past year the fast-growing economies of the emerging world watched the Western financial hurricane from afar. Their own banks held few of the mortgage-based assets that undid the rich world’s financial firms. Commodity exporters were thriving, thanks to high prices for raw materials. China’s economic juggernaut powered on. And, from Budapest to Brasília, an abundance of credit fuelled domestic demand. Even as talk mounted of the rich world suffering its worst financial collapse since the Depression, emerging economies seemed a long way from the centre of the storm.过去一年的大部分时间里,高速发展的新兴国家一直在远处观望着西方国家的金融风暴。他们的银行仅持有少量抵押资产,而类似的资产已经破坏了发达国家的金融公司。商品出口商因为原材料的高价格而日渐富有。中国不可抗拒的经济力量已然开启,而且信贷刺激的内需从布达佩斯到巴西利亚都表现得非常充足。尽管大萧条后关于西方国家受难于金融崩塌的话题与日俱增,但新兴国家似乎距离金融风暴的中心还有一段距离。No longer. As foreign capital has fled and confidence evaporated, the emerging world’s stockmarkets have plunged (in some cases losing half their value) and currencies tumbled. The seizure in the credit market caused havoc, as foreign banks abruptly stopped lending and stepped back from even the most basic banking services, including trade credits.不过目前的情况不再是那样了,随着境外资本的流失和经济信心的消失,新兴国家股市暴跌(有些地区已经腰斩),本币迅速贬值。由于外国银行突然中断贷款,并且收缩了包括贸易信贷在内的基础银行服务,新兴国家的信贷市场突发混乱,并引发了一场浩劫。Like their rich-world counterparts, governments are battling to limit the damage (see article). That is easiest for those with large foreign-exchange reserves. Russia is spending $220 billion to shore up its financial services industry. South Korea has guaranteed $100 billion of its banks’ debt. Less well-endowed countries are asking for help. Hungary has secured a EURO5 billion ($ billion) lifeline from the European Central Bank and is negotiating a loan from the IMF, as is Ukraine. Close to a dozen countries are talking to the fund about financial help.新兴国家的政府和发达国家的政府一样都在为控制损失程度而奋斗。不过对于外汇储备充足的国家来说难度会小一些:俄罗斯斥资2200亿美元重振金融服务行业;韩国政府担保了1000亿美元的银行债务。而那些储备并不充足的国家正在四处求援:匈牙利成功向欧洲央行求得了50亿欧元(约66亿美元)的生命线,同时也在同国际货币基金组织协商借款事宜,同时向国际货币基金组织求援的还有乌克兰。近一打儿的国家在向基金组织求助。Those with long-standing problems are being driven to desperate measures. Argentina is nationalising its private pension funds, seemingly to stave off default (see article). But even stalwarts are looking weaker. Figures released this week showed that China’s growth slowed to 9% in the year to the third quarter-still a rapid pace but a lot slower than the double-digit rates of recent years.有持续问题的国家正棋行险招:阿根廷正在将私人养老金国有化,意图阻止违约的发生。即使强有力的国家也表现出虚弱一面:本周公布的数字表明今年中国的增长率在第三季度减缓为9%,虽然增速还算快,但是与近些年的两位数增率相比缓慢了不少。Blowing cold on credit对信贷没兴趣The various emerging economies are in different states of readiness, but the cumulative impact of all this will be enormous. Most obviously, how these countries fare will determine whether the world economy faces a mild recession or something nastier. Emerging economies accounted for around three-quarters of global growth over the past 18 months. But their economic fate will also have political consequences.众多新兴经济的意愿并不相同,但是累计在一起的影响力却非同一般。最明显的就是这些国家的表现将会决定世界经济所面临的是一个较为缓和的衰退还是更可怕的情况。在过去18个月的全球经济增长中,新兴经济贡献了75%。但是他们的经济命运也会有一些政治后果。In many places-eastern Europe is one example (see article)-financial turmoil is hitting weak governments. But even strong regimes could suffer. Some experts think that China needs growth of 7% a year to contain social unrest. More generally, the coming strife will shape the debate about the integration of the world economy. Unlike many previous emerging-market crises, today’s mess spread from the rich world, largely thanks to increasingly integrated capital markets. If emerging economies collapse-either into a currency crisis or a sharp recession-there will be yet more questioning of the wisdom of globalised finance.在类似东欧的很多地区,金融混乱目前的打击目标是软弱的政府;但强硬的政权同样会尝到苦果。一些专家认为中国每年需要7%的增长率来阻止社会动荡的发生。总体来说,如此争端必将影响全球经济一体化的讨论。与以往数次新兴经济危机不同,这次的混乱始于发达国家,很大程度上要归咎于一体化的资本市场。一旦新兴经济崩溃,无论是货币危机还是剧烈的经济萧条,大家对于金融全球化是否属明智之举会有更多的质疑。Fortunately, the picture is not universally dire. All emerging economies will slow. Some will surely face deep recessions. But many are facing the present danger in stronger shape than ever before, armed with large reserves, flexible currencies and strong budgets. Good policy-both at home and in the rich world-can yet avoid a catastrophe.幸运的是上述恐怖的场景没有发生在全球的每个角落:所有的新兴经济都会减缓发展速度,有一些也必将面临深度萧条;但是更多的国家在面临当下危机的时候却拥有比以往任何时候都强壮的形式,用充足的储备、弹性的货币和强大的预算武装自己。新兴国家及发达国家良好的政策可以避免大灾难的发生。One reason for hope is that the direct economic fallout from the rich world’s disaster is manageable. Falling demand in America and Europe hurts exports, particularly in Asia and Mexico. Commodity prices have fallen: oil is down nearly 60% from its peak and many crops and metals have done worse. That has a mixed effect. Although it hurts commodity-exporters from Russia to South America, it helps commodity importers in Asia and reduces inflation fears everywhere. Countries like Venezuela that have been run badly are vulnerable (see article), but given the scale of the past boom, the commodity bust so far seems unlikely to cause widespread crises.至少有一个原因值得抱有希望:发达国家此次灾难的直接经济影响还是在可控的范围内。欧美锐减的需求对出口来说无疑是一个打击,特别是对亚洲和墨西哥。商品价格走低:原油价格与巅峰时期比较已经下降了60%,很多粮食和金属类商品跌幅更大。这两个现象有混合效果:尽管从俄罗斯到南美的商品(能源)出口企业备受打击,但却帮助了亚洲的商品(能源)进口商,并且缓和了各地对通胀的恐惧。委内瑞拉的情形一直很糟糕,也很脆弱;不过由于过去极度的繁荣,商品价格下跌目前还不会引发大范围传播的危机。The more dangerous shock is financial. Wealth is being squeezed as asset prices decline. China’s house prices, for instance, have started falling (see article). This will dampen domestic confidence, even though consumers are much less indebted than they are in the rich world. Elsewhere, the sudden dearth of foreign-bank lending and the flight of hedge funds and other investors from bond markets has slammed the brakes on credit growth. And just as booming credit once underpinned strong domestic spending, so tighter credit will mean slower growth.比商品价格更令人震惊的事情发生在金融领域。由于资产价格的下降,财富水平正在被挤压缩水。以中国房价为例,目前已经开始下跌。尽管新兴国家的消费者比发达国家的负债水平低很多,上述情况还是会挫伤国内的经济信心。在其他方面,国外银行借款骤然匮乏、对冲基金以及其他投资者逃离债券市场,这些因素给信贷增长踩了一脚急刹车。正如发达的信贷曾经强力支撑国内支出那样,信贷紧缩将意味着增长放缓。Again, the impact will differ by country. Thanks to huge current-account surpluses in China and the oil-exporters in the Gulf, emerging economies as a group still send capital to the rich world. But over 80 have deficits of more than 5% of GDP. Most of these are poor countries that live off foreign aid; but some larger ones rely on private capital. For the likes of Turkey and South Africa a sudden slowing in foreign financing would force a dramatic adjustment. A particular worry is eastern Europe, where many countries have double-digit deficits. In addition, even some countries with surpluses, such as Russia, have banks that have grown accustomed to easy foreign lending because of the integration of global finance. The rich world’s bank bail-outs may limit the squeeze, but the flow of capital to the emerging world will slow. The Institute of International Finance, a bankers’ group, expects a 30% decline in net flows of private capital from last year.需要再次重申的是,冲击的表现会因国家的不同而有所区别。多亏中国和海湾产油国经常项目下的巨额顺差,新型经济整体还不断的向发达国家输送资本。但是80 多个国家的财政赤字已经超过GDP的5%,其中的多数是那些依靠国外救助过活得贫困国家;不过也有一些依靠私人资本的大国。对于类似土耳其和南非的国家来说,突然减缓的境外融资迫使其进行大幅调整。东欧的情况特别令人担忧,那里的不少国家赤字水平已经达到了两位数。另外,象俄罗斯这样处于顺差的国家,其银行也逐渐适应了可以轻易从外国取得的贷款,原因自然是全球金融一体化。发达国家的救助计划也许可以限制财富被挤压的水平,但资本流向新兴世界的速度无疑会减慢。国际金融研协会预测私人资本的净流量比去年回减少30%。A wing and a prayer飞行之翼与祈祷者This credit crunch will be grim, but most emerging markets can avoid catastrophe. The biggest ones are in relatively good shape. The more vulnerable ones can (and should) be helped.信贷紧缩必将令人生畏,不过多数新兴市场可以躲过一劫,最大的市场形势还相当不错。比较脆弱的市场可以(也应该)得到帮助。Among the giants, China is in a league of its own, with a $2 trillion arsenal of reserves, a current-account surplus, little connection to foreign banks and a budget surplus that offers lots of room to boost spending. Since the country’s leaders have made clear that they will do whatever it takes to cushion growth, China’s economy is likely to slow-perhaps to 8%-but not collapse. Although that is not enough to save the world economy, such growth in China would put a floor under commodity prices and help other countries in the emerging world.在那些坚强的巨人中,中国卓然不群:手握2万亿美元的储备,经常项下的顺差状态,与国外银行罕有关联,过剩的预算给推动支出留有足够空间。鉴于国家领导人已经明确表示将不惜一切代价为经济增长减速缓冲,中国的经济增长应该会减缓到大约8%的水平,但是决不会崩溃。虽然这不足以挽救世界经济,但是该增长率将会为商品价格建底并帮到新兴世界的其他国家。The other large economies will be harder hit, but should be able to weather the storm. India has a big budget deficit and many Brazilian firms have a large foreign-currency exposure. But Brazil’s economy is diversified and both countries have plenty of reserves to smooth the shift to slower growth. With $550 billion of reserves, Russia ought to be able to stop a run on the rouble. In the short-term at least, the most vulnerable countries are all smaller ones.其他的经济大国会受到更大的冲击,不过应该可以禁受住风暴侵袭。印度的财政赤字巨大,巴西很多公司面临巨大的外汇风险。但巴西经济已经实现多样化,同时上述两个国家拥有充足的储备来平稳过渡到缓慢的增长。俄罗斯掌握着5500亿美元的储备,应该能够阻止对卢布的抢购。至少在短期内,小国家才是最弱不禁风的。There will be pain as tighter credit forces adjustments. But sensible, speedy international assistance would make a big difference. Several emerging countries have asked America’s Federal Reserve for liquidity support; some hope that China will bail them out. A better route is surely the IMF, which has huge expertise and some $250 billion to lend. Sadly, borrowing from the fund carries a stigma. That needs to change. The IMF should develop quicker, more flexible financial instruments and minimise the conditions it attaches to loans. Over the past month deft policymaking saw off calamity in the rich world. Now it is time for something similar in the emerging world.受到紧缩信贷压力进行的调整必然带来痛苦,但快速的国际援助是明智之举,因为这会让结果很不相同。一些新兴国家已经向美联储求援以缓解流动性问题;有一些则希望中国可以拯救他们与水火。更佳的求救路线莫过于国际货币基金组织,因为它掌握大量的专门知识和2500亿美元的可出借款项。不幸的是人们认为向基金借款有辱其名,国际货币基金组织应该推出更快捷、更灵活的金融工具,同时实现借贷条件最小化。过去数月中,机敏的决策驱散了发达国家的灾难。现在也正是新兴世界发生类似事情的时候了。

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