消费者行为论文的外文文献

【摘要】现阶段我国居民储蓄的主体城镇居民储蓄持续、飞速增长。储蓄的高增长是一把“双刃剑”。一方面,为经济、金融的发展提供了强大的资金保障;另一方面不仅给整个经济的持续发展带来了隐患,而且在开放条件下也影响了资本市场的发展、以及加重了银行经营成本和负担。本文在分析完城镇居民的消费行为后将结论应用于居民储蓄行为的研究:前瞻型消费者的储蓄行为是我国储蓄快速增长的原因。在获得中国城镇居民储蓄行为结论后对储蓄的变动进行了预测并提出政策建议。 【关键词】消费;储蓄;馈赠性储蓄 1 我国最终储蓄率的发展 第一阶段:上世纪80年代初到90年代中期,我国的最终储蓄率稳步增长,在15年的时间内上涨了10个百分点。 第二阶段:在上世纪90年代中后期,我国的最终储蓄率呈现下降的趋势,5年的时间内下降了3.6%。 第三阶段:进入21世纪后,我国的最终储蓄率又进一步抬头。 2 前瞻型居民的储蓄行为 中国国内的居民可以分为两类:前瞻型居民和短视型居民。本文主要讨论前瞻型居民的储蓄行为。居民前瞻性储蓄大致可以分为三类:预防性储蓄、馈赠性储蓄和生命周期储蓄。各种类型的储蓄动机是不同的。因此与当期收入的关系也不相同。 2.1 前瞻性储蓄中的预防性储蓄:预防性储蓄是用来预防未来的不确定性。导致预防性储蓄产生的因素分为两类,第一类:不确定性因素。在不确定因素下(比如,收入的不确定性)居民会直接增加储蓄,从而防止消费的剧烈波动所造成的效用下降。这种影响是直接的,居民受这种不确定性的影响直接调整储蓄。而在我国收入的不确定性不影响前瞻型居民的消费即不会引起预防性储蓄的产生。 第二类:保障性因素。在低保型因素下(比如,不健全的社会保障体系或者低收入的保障)前瞻型居民的消费会变得非常有耐心,会尽量的节省,从而减少当期的消费增加预防性储蓄。这种影响是间接的,保障因素通过影响居民的耐心,进而影响居民的储蓄。第二类因素其实质是一种与不确定性因素相对的变量。这类因素可以提高抗风险的能力。具体来讲:当期收入的总量(规模),各种社会保障制度(如:养老保险制度,失业保险制度,医疗保险制度等)。制度因素暂不讨论,当期收入规模对预防性储蓄的影响表现为两个方面:一方面,当期收入的规模越大,其抗风险的能力就越强,进行预防性储蓄的动机就越弱,边际储蓄倾向就越小。因为收入波动对消费的影响小,会被收入的规模所抵消,不会存在消费的波动,从而就不需要大量的预防性储蓄来防止消费的波动。另一方面,当期收入的规模越小,其抗风险的能力就越弱,进行预防性储蓄的动机就越强,边际储蓄倾向就越大。因为收入波动对消费的影响大,而收入的的规模不能抵消这种影响,为了防止消费的波动,实现效用最大化,居民变得非常有耐心,从而减少当期消费,增加预防性储蓄来防止消费的波动。因此当期收入规模与预防性储蓄成反比。 2.2 前瞻性储蓄中的馈赠性储蓄:馈赠性储蓄是赠送给他人(特别是子孙后代)的储蓄。决定馈赠性储蓄的因素包括主观因素和客观因素。主观因素主要是居民的心理因素,包括个人对馈赠性储蓄的偏好,这暂不讨论。决定储蓄的客观因素有两个,收入的规模和收入分布。 收入规模和收入分布对馈赠性储蓄的影响:收入规模和馈赠性储蓄成正比,收入规模的增长会导致消费的增长,进而导致消费的边际效用的减少,因此收入规模的递增会导致消费边际效用的递减;馈赠性储蓄也会增加总的效用,并且随着收入规模的增加,馈赠性储蓄的边际效用会增加。当消费的边际效用低于馈赠性储蓄的边际效用时就会产生馈赠性储蓄。因此收入规模的增加会降低消费的边际效用,提高馈赠性储蓄的边际效用,从而产生馈赠性储蓄。收入分布对馈赠性储蓄的关系。在收入规模不变的情况下,收入的变动会影响馈赠性储蓄的变动。衡量收入分布的主要标准为基尼系数。收入的基尼系数越大,说明小部分的人占有了大量的当期收入,表现了社会的不公平程度。收入的分布越不平均,基尼系数就越大,小部分居名的收入规模比较庞大,因此会产生大量的馈赠性储蓄。因此基尼系数与馈赠性储蓄成正比。 2.3 前瞻性储蓄中的生命周期储蓄:莫迪格利安尼、布伦博格假设消费者面对现在和今后一生总消费的效用函数。试图将自己一生的全部收入在消费和储蓄之间分配,从而达到效用最大化。消费者在决策过程中不仅会考虑当期收入,而且会考虑今后一生的收入。但是行为人却是一个短视的行为人。因为现实生活中收入是变动的,在适用性预期的框架下,前期的收入是预测未来收入的主要指标。因此消费会受到持久性收入的影响。而持久性收入又是当期收入和前期收入所决定。消费最终还是受当期收入的影响。但是无论消费是否受当期收入的影响,储蓄总是与当期收入相关。只有当消费受当期收入影响时,收入的变动会部分的转为储蓄,储蓄的增长就比较缓慢;当小费不受当期收入的影响时,收入的变动完全转化为储蓄,储蓄的增长就比较快。3 对我国近段最终储蓄率发展的解释 第一阶段:前瞻型居民在解决了温饱问题以后,收入规模的逐渐增强导致了预防性储蓄倾向增强、预防性储蓄快速增长。而且其增长速度远远超过了消费的增长速度,因此最终储蓄率在这一段时间内稳步增长 第二阶段:前瞻型居民的收入和预防性储蓄总量都达到了一定的规模,与此同时,馈赠性储蓄的边际储蓄倾向还不是很强,因此城镇中前瞻型居民的总储蓄倾向减弱。导致了最终储蓄率的下降。 第三阶段:由于馈赠性储蓄的边际储蓄倾向变大所导致的,馈赠性储蓄倾向的变大是由于城镇中前瞻型居民的收入规模进一步扩大、城镇居民收入的基尼系数进一步加大而导致的。 4 改进城镇居民储蓄行为的政策建议 国内生产总值的增长是城镇居民收入增长的主要保障。我国作为最具有发展前景的国家,其国内生产总值在今后的一段时间内将保持稳定、持续增长的趋势,因此城镇居民的收入水平也会相应的的持续稳定增长。另外,从现阶段来看。城镇居民的收入增长率平均在11%左右,上下浮动没有超过2%,特别在最后两年基本保持在11%的水平上,因此从现阶段的收入数据和我国的基本经济形势两个方面来看,城镇居民的收入水平会持续稳定增长,从而储蓄也会快速增长。中国储蓄的稳定增长对中国经济的长期发展具有非常重要的意义。居民储蓄的稳定增长是中国经济保持高增长的资本来源。另一方面,中国储蓄的高速增长也给中国经济的短期增长带来了一定的不安因素。消费作为国内生产总值的重要部分,是经济稳定发展的重要支柱。然而消费偏低不仅会导致内需不足,而且会突显投资在经济中地位,进而增加经济的大幅波动。 4.1 运用税收政策。一方面通过个人所得税、遗产和馈赠税能够直接缩小贫富差距;另一方面,政府也能为此而筹集足够的资金,有利于其他收入再分配政策的实施。 4.2 运用财政支出政策。在短期,政府直接通过转移支付手段防止贫富差距的扩大。在长期内,政府通过教育支出,从而调节由于教育差距、知识差距而导致的贫富差距。 4.3 缩小行业的收入差距。调节垄断行业和非垄断行业的收入差距,是防止贫富差距的重要措施之一。 参考文献 [1] 刘方域,张少龙主编.支撑经济增长—中国消费、储蓄、投资研究,华文出版社,2001.1 [2] 臧旭恒.居民资产和消费选择行为分析.上海三联书店.上海人民出版社,2001.4 [3] 王立平.转型时期中国消费者行为研究综述.经济学动态,

我也是外行，只能说说我的办法：方法一：自己组织有限资源进行问卷调查，用科学的分类统计方法，得到合理的数据。方法二：查阅外文文献，这个要求比较高了，但是外文中必定有你想要的数据和方法。方法三：在有关网站中花钱买数据，这个方法是一般企业喜欢使用的方法，也比较简单。方法四：到相关金融机构，比如中国银行，当地金融办等部门获得相关数据。注：个人觉得经济性指标和数据，好多都是扯淡的，要是毕业论文什么的，就直接自己杜撰得了！

TOPIC 1: Adverse Selection in the Credit Card Market (信用卡市场的逆向选择)作者及写作年份:Lawrence M. Ausubel June 17, 1999部分摘要:trading situations where one (informed) party possesses information which is relevant to his (uninformed)trading partner, the informed party may find it advantageous to engage in trade only in states of informationwhich are relatively unfavorable from the viewpoint of the uninformed party. Thus, a firm which offers acontract to the general population may find that the composition of the pool of customers who accept thefirm's contract is inferior to the composition of the general population. The particular contractual termsoffered by the firm may influence the composition of the customer pool and, in some informationalenvironments, adverse selection may lead to a complete unraveling of the market (George A. Akerlof,1970).Many of the economically-richest implications of adverse selection have been drawn in creditmarkets. High interest rates charged to borrowers may induce adverse selection on default probability,leading banks to engage in credit rationing in high-interest environments (Joseph E. Stiglitz and AndrewWeiss, 1981). Competition along particular dimensions in credit card pricing may result in adverseselection, blunting the usual effects of competition, and contributing to sticky interest rates and extranormalprofits (Lawrence M. Ausubel, 1991). And, when borrowers have the opportunity to engage in signalingbehavior, the same structure of asymmetric information as in adverse selection models yields signalingstories which have important implications for corporate investment and the capital structure of firms (see,for example, Sudipto Bhattacharya, 1979, and Stewart C. Myers and Nicholas S. Majluf, 1984).Yet despite a burgeoning economics and finance literature consisting of literally hundreds of articlesexploring the implications of adverse selection in credit markets, there remains little in the way of empiricalstudies which convincingly document the existence of adverse selection in credit markets as a real-worldphenomenon. The objective of the current paper is to present compelling direct evidence of adverseselection in one specific credit market.The stakes in such an empirical exercise are quite considerable. It is frequently argued that virtuallyany conclusion may be reached from a suitably-chosen economic model of incomplete information.However, to the extent that adverse selection can be shown to be a genuine empirical phenomenon in creditmarkets, then we can have confidence that at least one important component 阅读全文PDF格式: 阅读全文word格式: 2: Consumer Search Behavior in the ChangingCredit Card Market (不断变化的信用卡市场中,消费者的行为研究)作者及写作时间:Sougata Kerr & Lucia DunnSeptember 2002 部分摘要:Credit card balance switching has become an important issue in the banking community as cardholders seek to move their revolving credit to the lowest-cost lenders. This kind of “search and switch” behavior would be expected to put downward pressure on credit card interest rates. Previous research on the credit card market focused on why its interest rates persisted at levels greater than those for other types of consumer loans, and one explanation put forward was the inhibiting nature of high search costs in this market, especially for large-balance cardholders whose probability of credit rejection is high. Recent developments in the credit card industry – in particular the Truth-in-Lending Act of 1988 together with a large increase in direct solicitations – have changed the environment of this market substantially. Because of this new environment, as well as improvements in data availability, the issue of credit card search needs to be revisited. The current paper identifies those consumers whose probability of rejection is high and tests whether this probability has any impact on their search propensities. It does this by analyzing (i) the effect of large balances on the consumer’s probability of credit application rejection and (ii) how these factors – large balances and rejection probability –affect consumers’ search propensities. In testing the search-cost hypothesis, the issue of endogeneity between consumers’ search and the likelihood of rejection is dealt with by estimating a simultaneous equations model. The results presented here show no evidence that search costs deter consumer interest rate search in the credit card market of the 1990s, either for high-balance. This is officially known as the Fair Credit and Charge Card Disclosure Act of 1988. cardholders with a greater probability of rejection or for low-balance cardholders. In the next section we review the relevant literature on this market and discuss recent changes in the market environment. Section III discusses our methodology and improvements in the recent data. Section IV presents our results. Finally, Section V concludes by summarizing our find......................阅读全文PDF格式: 阅读全文word格式:

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