经济类英文论文范文

纯英文的行不行啊？

INTO THE STORMFOR much of the past year the fast-growing economies of the emerging world watched the Western financial hurricane from afar. Their own banks held few of the mortgage-based assets that undid the rich world’s financial firms. Commodity exporters were thriving, thanks to high prices for raw materials. China’s economic juggernaut powered on. And, from Budapest to Brasília, an abundance of credit fuelled domestic demand. Even as talk mounted of the rich world suffering its worst financial collapse since the Depression, emerging economies seemed a long way from the centre of the storm.过去一年的大部分时间里，高速发展的新兴国家一直在远处观望着西方国家的金融风暴。他们的银行仅持有少量抵押资产，而类似的资产已经破坏了发达国家的金融公司。商品出口商因为原材料的高价格而日渐富有。中国不可抗拒的经济力量已然开启，而且信贷刺激的内需从布达佩斯到巴西利亚都表现得非常充足。尽管大萧条后关于西方国家受难于金融崩塌的话题与日俱增，但新兴国家似乎距离金融风暴的中心还有一段距离。No longer. As foreign capital has fled and confidence evaporated, the emerging world’s stockmarkets have plunged (in some cases losing half their value) and currencies tumbled. The seizure in the credit market caused havoc, as foreign banks abruptly stopped lending and stepped back from even the most basic banking services, including trade credits.不过目前的情况不再是那样了，随着境外资本的流失和经济信心的消失，新兴国家股市暴跌（有些地区已经腰斩），本币迅速贬值。由于外国银行突然中断贷款，并且收缩了包括贸易信贷在内的基础银行服务，新兴国家的信贷市场突发混乱，并引发了一场浩劫。Like their rich-world counterparts, governments are battling to limit the damage (see article). That is easiest for those with large foreign-exchange reserves. Russia is spending $220 billion to shore up its financial services industry. South Korea has guaranteed $100 billion of its banks’ debt. Less well-endowed countries are asking for help. Hungary has secured a EURO5 billion ($ billion) lifeline from the European Central Bank and is negotiating a loan from the IMF, as is Ukraine. Close to a dozen countries are talking to the fund about financial help.新兴国家的政府和发达国家的政府一样都在为控制损失程度而奋斗。不过对于外汇储备充足的国家来说难度会小一些：俄罗斯斥资2200亿美元重振金融服务行业；韩国政府担保了1000亿美元的银行债务。而那些储备并不充足的国家正在四处求援：匈牙利成功向欧洲央行求得了50亿欧元（约66亿美元）的生命线，同时也在同国际货币基金组织协商借款事宜，同时向国际货币基金组织求援的还有乌克兰。近一打儿的国家在向基金组织求助。Those with long-standing problems are being driven to desperate measures. Argentina is nationalising its private pension funds, seemingly to stave off default (see article). But even stalwarts are looking weaker. Figures released this week showed that China’s growth slowed to 9% in the year to the third quarter-still a rapid pace but a lot slower than the double-digit rates of recent years.有持续问题的国家正棋行险招：阿根廷正在将私人养老金国有化，意图阻止违约的发生。即使强有力的国家也表现出虚弱一面：本周公布的数字表明今年中国的增长率在第三季度减缓为9%，虽然增速还算快，但是与近些年的两位数增率相比缓慢了不少。Blowing cold on credit对信贷没兴趣The various emerging economies are in different states of readiness, but the cumulative impact of all this will be enormous. Most obviously, how these countries fare will determine whether the world economy faces a mild recession or something nastier. Emerging economies accounted for around three-quarters of global growth over the past 18 months. But their economic fate will also have political consequences.众多新兴经济的意愿并不相同，但是累计在一起的影响力却非同一般。最明显的就是这些国家的表现将会决定世界经济所面临的是一个较为缓和的衰退还是更可怕的情况。在过去18个月的全球经济增长中，新兴经济贡献了75%。但是他们的经济命运也会有一些政治后果。In many places-eastern Europe is one example (see article)-financial turmoil is hitting weak governments. But even strong regimes could suffer. Some experts think that China needs growth of 7% a year to contain social unrest. More generally, the coming strife will shape the debate about the integration of the world economy. Unlike many previous emerging-market crises, today’s mess spread from the rich world, largely thanks to increasingly integrated capital markets. If emerging economies collapse-either into a currency crisis or a sharp recession-there will be yet more questioning of the wisdom of globalised finance.在类似东欧的很多地区，金融混乱目前的打击目标是软弱的政府；但强硬的政权同样会尝到苦果。一些专家认为中国每年需要7%的增长率来阻止社会动荡的发生。总体来说，如此争端必将影响全球经济一体化的讨论。与以往数次新兴经济危机不同，这次的混乱始于发达国家，很大程度上要归咎于一体化的资本市场。一旦新兴经济崩溃，无论是货币危机还是剧烈的经济萧条，大家对于金融全球化是否属明智之举会有更多的质疑。Fortunately, the picture is not universally dire. All emerging economies will slow. Some will surely face deep recessions. But many are facing the present danger in stronger shape than ever before, armed with large reserves, flexible currencies and strong budgets. Good policy-both at home and in the rich world-can yet avoid a catastrophe.幸运的是上述恐怖的场景没有发生在全球的每个角落：所有的新兴经济都会减缓发展速度，有一些也必将面临深度萧条；但是更多的国家在面临当下危机的时候却拥有比以往任何时候都强壮的形式，用充足的储备、弹性的货币和强大的预算武装自己。新兴国家及发达国家良好的政策可以避免大灾难的发生。One reason for hope is that the direct economic fallout from the rich world’s disaster is manageable. Falling demand in America and Europe hurts exports, particularly in Asia and Mexico. Commodity prices have fallen: oil is down nearly 60% from its peak and many crops and metals have done worse. That has a mixed effect. Although it hurts commodity-exporters from Russia to South America, it helps commodity importers in Asia and reduces inflation fears everywhere. Countries like Venezuela that have been run badly are vulnerable (see article), but given the scale of the past boom, the commodity bust so far seems unlikely to cause widespread crises.至少有一个原因值得抱有希望：发达国家此次灾难的直接经济影响还是在可控的范围内。欧美锐减的需求对出口来说无疑是一个打击，特别是对亚洲和墨西哥。商品价格走低：原油价格与巅峰时期比较已经下降了60%，很多粮食和金属类商品跌幅更大。这两个现象有混合效果：尽管从俄罗斯到南美的商品（能源）出口企业备受打击，但却帮助了亚洲的商品（能源）进口商，并且缓和了各地对通胀的恐惧。委内瑞拉的情形一直很糟糕，也很脆弱；不过由于过去极度的繁荣，商品价格下跌目前还不会引发大范围传播的危机。The more dangerous shock is financial. Wealth is being squeezed as asset prices decline. China’s house prices, for instance, have started falling (see article). This will dampen domestic confidence, even though consumers are much less indebted than they are in the rich world. Elsewhere, the sudden dearth of foreign-bank lending and the flight of hedge funds and other investors from bond markets has slammed the brakes on credit growth. And just as booming credit once underpinned strong domestic spending, so tighter credit will mean slower growth.比商品价格更令人震惊的事情发生在金融领域。由于资产价格的下降，财富水平正在被挤压缩水。以中国房价为例，目前已经开始下跌。尽管新兴国家的消费者比发达国家的负债水平低很多，上述情况还是会挫伤国内的经济信心。在其他方面，国外银行借款骤然匮乏、对冲基金以及其他投资者逃离债券市场，这些因素给信贷增长踩了一脚急刹车。正如发达的信贷曾经强力支撑国内支出那样，信贷紧缩将意味着增长放缓。Again, the impact will differ by country. Thanks to huge current-account surpluses in China and the oil-exporters in the Gulf, emerging economies as a group still send capital to the rich world. But over 80 have deficits of more than 5% of GDP. Most of these are poor countries that live off foreign aid; but some larger ones rely on private capital. For the likes of Turkey and South Africa a sudden slowing in foreign financing would force a dramatic adjustment. A particular worry is eastern Europe, where many countries have double-digit deficits. In addition, even some countries with surpluses, such as Russia, have banks that have grown accustomed to easy foreign lending because of the integration of global finance. The rich world’s bank bail-outs may limit the squeeze, but the flow of capital to the emerging world will slow. The Institute of International Finance, a bankers’ group, expects a 30% decline in net flows of private capital from last year.需要再次重申的是，冲击的表现会因国家的不同而有所区别。多亏中国和海湾产油国经常项目下的巨额顺差，新型经济整体还不断的向发达国家输送资本。但是80 多个国家的财政赤字已经超过GDP的5%，其中的多数是那些依靠国外救助过活得贫困国家；不过也有一些依靠私人资本的大国。对于类似土耳其和南非的国家来说，突然减缓的境外融资迫使其进行大幅调整。东欧的情况特别令人担忧，那里的不少国家赤字水平已经达到了两位数。另外，象俄罗斯这样处于顺差的国家，其银行也逐渐适应了可以轻易从外国取得的贷款，原因自然是全球金融一体化。发达国家的救助计划也许可以限制财富被挤压的水平，但资本流向新兴世界的速度无疑会减慢。国际金融研协会预测私人资本的净流量比去年回减少30%。A wing and a prayer飞行之翼与祈祷者This credit crunch will be grim, but most emerging markets can avoid catastrophe. The biggest ones are in relatively good shape. The more vulnerable ones can (and should) be helped.信贷紧缩必将令人生畏，不过多数新兴市场可以躲过一劫，最大的市场形势还相当不错。比较脆弱的市场可以（也应该）得到帮助。Among the giants, China is in a league of its own, with a $2 trillion arsenal of reserves, a current-account surplus, little connection to foreign banks and a budget surplus that offers lots of room to boost spending. Since the country’s leaders have made clear that they will do whatever it takes to cushion growth, China’s economy is likely to slow-perhaps to 8%-but not collapse. Although that is not enough to save the world economy, such growth in China would put a floor under commodity prices and help other countries in the emerging world.在那些坚强的巨人中，中国卓然不群：手握2万亿美元的储备，经常项下的顺差状态，与国外银行罕有关联，过剩的预算给推动支出留有足够空间。鉴于国家领导人已经明确表示将不惜一切代价为经济增长减速缓冲，中国的经济增长应该会减缓到大约8%的水平，但是决不会崩溃。虽然这不足以挽救世界经济，但是该增长率将会为商品价格建底并帮到新兴世界的其他国家。The other large economies will be harder hit, but should be able to weather the storm. India has a big budget deficit and many Brazilian firms have a large foreign-currency exposure. But Brazil’s economy is diversified and both countries have plenty of reserves to smooth the shift to slower growth. With $550 billion of reserves, Russia ought to be able to stop a run on the rouble. In the short-term at least, the most vulnerable countries are all smaller ones.其他的经济大国会受到更大的冲击，不过应该可以禁受住风暴侵袭。印度的财政赤字巨大，巴西很多公司面临巨大的外汇风险。但巴西经济已经实现多样化，同时上述两个国家拥有充足的储备来平稳过渡到缓慢的增长。俄罗斯掌握着5500亿美元的储备，应该能够阻止对卢布的抢购。至少在短期内，小国家才是最弱不禁风的。There will be pain as tighter credit forces adjustments. But sensible, speedy international assistance would make a big difference. Several emerging countries have asked America’s Federal Reserve for liquidity support; some hope that China will bail them out. A better route is surely the IMF, which has huge expertise and some $250 billion to lend. Sadly, borrowing from the fund carries a stigma. That needs to change. The IMF should develop quicker, more flexible financial instruments and minimise the conditions it attaches to loans. Over the past month deft policymaking saw off calamity in the rich world. Now it is time for something similar in the emerging world.受到紧缩信贷压力进行的调整必然带来痛苦，但快速的国际援助是明智之举，因为这会让结果很不相同。一些新兴国家已经向美联储求援以缓解流动性问题；有一些则希望中国可以拯救他们与水火。更佳的求救路线莫过于国际货币基金组织，因为它掌握大量的专门知识和2500亿美元的可出借款项。不幸的是人们认为向基金借款有辱其名，国际货币基金组织应该推出更快捷、更灵活的金融工具，同时实现借贷条件最小化。过去数月中，机敏的决策驱散了发达国家的灾难。现在也正是新兴世界发生类似事情的时候了。

Before we start, let's talk a bit about collocations. Collocations are groups of words that are commonly used together. Native speakers are so used to using them, they know what sounds "right" and what sounds "wrong."在我们开始之前，我们来谈下搭配。搭配是指常用的词组搭配到一起。当地人很习惯于用这些，他们知道什么的搭配听起来是对的，什么是错的。For example, in English the phrase "go online" is a natural way to refer to using the internet. But it wouldn't be natural to say something like "proceed online" or "travel online", even though "proceed" and "travel" are other ways to express “go.” You’ll hear lots of collocations related to office life in today's dialog. Listen out for them and we'll explain what they mean and how to use them in the debrief. 比如，英语中的短语上网，就是使用网络的意思，甚至用前进和旅游来表达这个意思。在今天的播客中，你将听到很多和办公生活有关的搭配。仔细听，我们将会解释它们的意思以及如何在听取报告的时候使用它。Now, on to the role of an administrative assistant. The job title of "administrative assistant", or "admin assistant" for short, can cover quite a broad range of responsibilities. Admin assistants typically spend a lot of time handling data—whether it's timesheets recording the working hours of other employees, or rosters used for scheduling meeting rooms. Much of what they do involves making sure that other employees are working as efficiently as possible. 现在，来谈谈一个行政助理的职责。通常他们要花很长时间处理数据，不论是日程表记录，雇员的工作时间，还是会议地点安排的执勤人员表。这些很多都牵涉到确认是否有效地工作。In this episode we'll talk with Christina, who works as an admin assistant in the human resources department of an auto parts manufacturer. Christina's going to tell us about some of the responsibilities of her position. 在这节播客中，我们将和克里斯蒂娜交谈，她是汽车配件生产商的人事部的行政助理。克里斯蒂娜将会告诉我们有关她职责的细节。Collocations are a challenge for anyone learning English. There aren't any specific rules to follow. You just have to listen for what sounds right. Still, they're essential for English communication and important to keep in mind when you learn new vocabulary—don't just think about the new word, think about what other words it might be used with. We'll point out some useful collocations related to daily office work as we go through this lesson. 词语搭配对于英语学习者来说是一个挑战。没有严格的条款去依循。你必须去听听起来是对的。并且，当你学 学了新的词汇，不要只是觉得他们是新的词汇，要想到其他的一些可能会用到的其他词语，而搭配对于记住这些新的词至关重 要。Administrative assistants are important to any business organization. For example, they make sure data is handled responsibly and records are maintained properly. It might seem like they work in the background, but their jobs are critical to the smooth running of a company. 行政助理对于任何商业组织都很重要。比如，他们要确保 数据正确，记录好公司正常运行的数据。In the last episode we met Christina, the Head Administrative Assistant in the Human Resources department at LaFarge Automotive. In an interview, Christina told us about some of her usual job duties. Today, she'll talk about why her work is so important to the company. 上一集中，我们了解了克里斯蒂娜，在拉法基汽车公司人事部门的 总的行政助理。在这个访谈中，克里斯蒂娜告诉了我们她的日常工作。今天，她将要谈论她的工作对于整个公司的重要性。

Will oil be the kiss of death for recovery?The price of oil has suddenly broken higher – to the point where triple-digit crude is once again in the week oil climbed to $87 a barrel, its highest level since October 2008. This was after a period of eight months when oil traded between $70 and $80, a narrow band that pleased oil producers without hurting consumers too latest surge seems to have been prompted by rising confidence in a global economic recovery, even if most traders and bankers are still cautious about supply and demand fundamentals. The more bullish Wall Street banks see prices climbing further, with Barclays Capital forecasting $97, Goldman Sachs $110 and Morgan Stanley $100 next the higher prices go, the deeper the concerns that they will stifle global growth. Jeff Rubin, a former CIBC chief economist and author of a book on oil and globalization, says: “Triple-digit oil prices are going to threaten a world recovery.”Pricier oil and other key commodities, notably iron ore and copper, could ripple through the economy and financial markets, potentially triggering inflation and forcing central banks to lift interest rates from ultra-low levels. This could force bond yields higher, but lower the attractions of , higher oil prices could lift energy shares. In the S&P 500 index, the energy sector is up just per cent this year and was barely positive in the first quarter, lagging behind the index's 6 per cent gain for the Colas, ConvergEx Group chief market strategist, says: “With crude oil prices marching steadily higher, portfolio exposure to the energy sector could well become a key determinant of overall investment performance through the balance of 2010.”Oil prices first hit $100 a barrel in January 2008, before continuing their rapid ascent to peak at $147 in July of that year. They fell to a low of $32 in December 2008, before recovering again. Yesterday oil traded at about $85 a latest rise comes as the economic recovery fuels a jump in oil demand after the first global decline in a quarter century. Supply is not a worry, as the Opec oil cartel has more than 6m b/d of capacity to spare in a difference from last year is that then the oil price was rising against the backdrop of a weaker dollar. This year crude and the dollar have risen seem untroubled. Energy ministers at the International Energy Forum in Mexico last week embraced less volatility, not lower prices. Lawrence Summers, director of the US National Economic Council, in remarks this week bemoaned his country's dependence on foreign oil supplies, but did not complain about economists do not view $80 oil as a threat to global growth, which the International Monetary Fund projects at 4 per cent this year. James Hamilton, an economist at the University of California, San Diego, is author of a paper that found oil's 2008 surge to $147 a barrel helped tip a housing-led slowdown into a recession. This time, the relatively steady nature of the price rebound has allowed consumers to adjust.“The shock value is gone now,” Prof Hamilton Allidina, commodity strategist at Morgan Stanley, says the $100 oil he predicts next year would increase the “oil burden” – a function of demand, prices and global output – to about 4 per cent from per cent late last year. This would hurt developed economies more than emerging ones, as the latter are powering global growth and can afford fuel subsidies, he says. The IMF estimates consumer petroleum subsidies will reach almost $250bn this year. “If we were to move to $100 a barrel, economic growth would start to slow, but ‘derail' is likely too strong a word,” Mr Allidina move to higher oil prices would not necessarily generate corresponding gains in retail fuel prices, as new refining capacity has made petrol markets more competitive. In the US, filling stations in most states still sell petrol for less than $3 a gallon, well below the peak of 2008. In the UK, however, petrol prices are close to record highs, even though crude is well below its any case, prices are as much an effect of the economic expansion as a threat to it. China, the fastest-growing economy, is alone expected to consume 520,000 b/d more this year than last, contributing a third of global demand growth, according to International Energy Agency estimates.“You can't have a global recovery without the oil price recovering as well,” says Lutz Kilian, a University of Michigan economist who has studied the effects of oil shocks. Because demand is fuelling prices, “the only way to keep oil prices down is to remain in a recession, which hardly sounds attractive”. The prospect of higher prices is still alarming to many observers. Olivier Jakob, of Swiss consultant Petromatrix, said in a note that the “recovery of 2009 was fuelled with crude oil at $62 a barrel, not at $90 a barrel or $100 a barrel. We fear that the latest run on WTI will be the kiss of death for a global economy that was trying to avoid the possibility of a double-dip recession.”When oil prices last surged to $100 a barrel in late 2007, US and other rich-country consumers blunted the impact by drawing on home-equity loans and credit cards to finance petrol purchases, says David Greely, energy economist at Goldman Sachs.“It does raise the issue if we're in a much more credit constrained world going forward, are consumers able to do that or will they be more sensitive?” he asks 高油价：死亡之吻？油价突然之间已经破位上行，三位数水平似乎再度触手可及。上周油价升至每桶87美元，为2008年10月以来的最高水平。此前8个月，油价一直运行在70-80美元这个狭窄区间内，这一价位既让石油生产国满意，也不至于给石油消费国造成太大损害。最新这轮涨势似乎是受到人们对全球经济复苏的信心日增的推动，尽管多数交易员和银行家对供需基本面依然抱着谨慎看法。较为乐观的华尔街银行预计油价将进一步上涨，其中巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)预计明年油价会涨到97美元，高盛(Goldman Sachs)预计会涨到110美元，摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)预计涨到100美元。然而，油价涨得越高，人们就越是担心它会扼杀全球增长。加拿大帝国商业银行(CIBC)前首席经济学家杰夫•鲁宾(Jeff Rubin)表示：“油价如达到三位数水平，将危及全球复苏。”鲁宾写有一本论述石油与全球化的著作。石油及其它主要大宗商品（尤其是铁矿石和铜）价格上涨，可能对经济和金融市场产生连锁反应，触发通胀，迫使各央行提高目前处于极低水平的利率。这可能推高债券收益率，但会降低股票的吸引力。不过，油价上涨会利好能源股。在标普500指数中，能源板块今年以来仅上涨，其中在首季只是勉强维持上涨，而整体指数今年迄今已上涨6%。ConvergEx Group首席策略师尼古拉斯•克拉斯(Nicholas Colas)表示：“随着原油价格稳步走高，投资组合中的能源股敞口，很可能成为决定今年余下时间总体投资表现的一个关键因素。”油价第一次触及每桶100美元是在2008年1月。其后油价继续快速上行，至当年7月于147美元见顶。2008年12月，油价跌至32美元低点，后来再度回升。上周四油价处于每桶85美元附近。这次油价上涨的背景是：全球经济在度过25年来的首次衰退后，出现复苏，推动石油需求大幅增长。供应面没有问题，石油卡特尔组织欧佩克(Opec)必要时可立即启用逾600万桶/日的富余产能。与去年不同的一点是，当时油价上涨发生在美元走弱的背景下，而今年石油和美元一起上涨。各国政策制定者似乎没有觉得不安。最近在墨西哥举行的国际能源论坛(International Energy Forum)上，各国能源部长感到欢欣的是油价波动减小，而非价格走低。美国国家经济委员会(National Economic Council)主任劳伦斯•萨默斯(Lawrence Summers)上周发表讲话时，哀叹美国过度依赖外国石油，但没有抱怨油价。一些经济学家不认为每桶80美元的油价会对全球增长构成威胁。国际货币基金组织(IMF)预计今年全球经济将增长4%。加州大学圣迭戈分校的经济学家詹姆斯•汉密尔顿(James Hamilton)在一篇论文中指出，2008年油价飙升至每桶147美元，对住宅市场引发的经济放缓演变成衰退起到了推波助澜的作用。这次油价回升的势头相对平稳，让消费者能够适应。“现在冲击力消失了，”汉密尔顿表示。摩根士丹利大宗商品策略师侯赛因•阿里迪纳(Hussein Allidina)预计明年油价将达到每桶100美元水平。他表示，这将导致“石油负担”(oil burden)，即石油需求、价格与全球产出之间的一个函数，从去年底的升至4%左右。他说，发达经济体从中受到的损害将大于发展中经济体，因为后者正在推动全球增长，而且有能力发放燃油补贴。IMF估计，今年石油消费补贴总额将接近2500亿美元。如果油价升至每桶100美元，经济增长将开始放缓，但若说‘破坏'就可能言过其辞了，” 阿里迪纳表示。随着新增炼油产能使汽油市场竞争加剧，原油价格上涨未必会带动燃油零售价相应幅度的上涨。在美国多数州的加油站，汽油售价仍不到每加仑3美元，远低于2008年时的峰值。不过，在英国，汽油价格接近历史高位，尽管原油价格远低于历史最高水平。总之，油价既受到经济扩张的推动，也对经济扩张构成威胁。据国际能源机构(IEA)估计，在全球增长最快的经济体中国，今年石油日消费量将同比增加52万桶，占全球需求增量的三分之一。“在全球复苏的形势下，油价不可能不回升，”研究过石油冲击影响的密歇根大学经济学家卢茨•基连(Lutz Kilian)表示。因为需求正在推高价格，“要使油价保持在低位，唯一的办法是让经济继续维持衰退，这听上去一点都不吸引人。”不过，油价上涨的前景仍让许多观察家感到担心。瑞士咨询公司Petromatrix的奥利维尔•雅各布(Olivier Jakob)在一份研究简报中称：“2009年的复苏是由每桶62美元的原油推动的，不是每桶90美元、也不是每桶100美元。我们担心，对于正在设法避免双底衰退的全球经济来说，WTI(西德克萨斯州中质原油)的最新走势将是死亡之吻。”高盛能源经济学家戴维•格瑞利(David Greely)表示，上次油价在2007年底逼近100美元时，美国及其它富裕国家的消费者使用房屋净值贷款和信用卡支付汽油费用，淡化了油价上涨的影响。“现在面临一个问题，如果今后信贷紧缩状况明显超过以往，消费者还能这么做吗，或者他们将变得更加敏感？”