The development of modern finance
First, the financial problem of the uncertainty
(A) the uncertainty of the field in the application of asset pricing
1. Portfolio Theory and Capital Asset Pricing Model
In the framework of the financial analysis, introduction of the concept of uncertainty is a major role. First Kenes (1936) and Hicks (1939) proposed the concept of risk compensation that the financial products in the presence of uncertainty, should interest rates in different financial products in compensation for additional risks. Subsequently, Von Neumann (1947) applied the concept of expected utility of the proposed settlement in the decision-making under uncertainty in the method chosen, on this basis Markowiz (1952) developed a portfolio theory, he thought when investors choose portfolio concerned only with future cash flow of the mean and variance. He assumed that the expected utility of investors consistent with secondary distribution or multinomial distribution. Markowiz The main conclusions are subject to uncertainty, optimal decision-making is a diversified investment holding. Tobin (1958) that investor liquidity preferences for their own benefits and risks of different options for the balance. This further improved the framework of portfolio choice theory.
In the field of asset pricing model is another well-known theory of capital pricing model (CAPM), Sharp (1994) and Lintner (1995) using the formula succinctly expressed the portfolio value and risk-free interest rate and the level of risk assets, the relationship between . Black (1972) introduced even in the non-risk assets zones remained the case, Sharp and the CAPM formula is still valid, just without the risk of interest rates are including the entire market on all assets of the portfolio rate of return instead of the 预期. Contemporary with the CAPM model of the asset pricing model also Ross (1977) arbitrage pricing model (APT) and Lucas (1978) the typical agent asset pricing model.
Represented by CAPM asset pricing model for asset pricing provides a simple method of calculation, and obtain some support from empirical studies (Fama and Macbeth, 1973), but in reality some of the anomalies is still a lack of effective explanatory power, Brennan (1989) that the CAPM is based on the expectations of all investors in the investment and risk are common in estimates and judgments, and all investors the same utility function based on the assumption that this assumption is inconsistent with the reality This is leading to some practical problems CAPM on the root causes of the lack of explanatory power. It is beyond doubt on these assumptions, to promote the introduction of the concept of asymmetric information and research.
2. Market efficiency hypothesis
Market efficiency hypothesis that in a perfectly competitive market, there is no asymmetric information and market frictions affect the future earnings of the average investment risk is different. 60s in the 20th century a large number of research workers on the market efficiency hypothesis was tested, Fama (1973) through empirical tests on the U.S. stock market, that the efficient market hypothesis holds, but many researchers found that in the market, There are many market efficiency hypothesis or CAPM model can not explain the abnormal phenomenon. For example, Basu (1977) found that the average earnings assets, in addition to the β coefficient of the CAPM, but also with the price earnings ratio of assets (P / E ratio) is related to the same β coefficient, the higher the price earnings ratio stocks (growth stocks) better than the market price of the low price earnings ratio of stocks (value stocks); Benz (1981) found that the market price of the stock with the size of the listed company; Stattman (1980) found that stock prices and the ratio of book value (P / B ratio) is also an important factor affecting stock prices. Fama and French (1993) On the basis of the above three-factor model proposed that the impact of asset prices in the β factors, joined the P / E ratio and P / B ratio factor.
The interpretation of these anomalies, the efficient market hypothesis seems powerless, someone had tried the "January effect" to the end of Shuishou interpreted as the impact of outflow, but in the United Kingdom, Australia, the annual revenue of the country is not in December, there are still "in January effect "can not be explained. Some scholars from a psychological perspective to explain these anomalies, such as, Dreman (1982) the stock price P / E ratio effect interpreted as the investor always overestimate growth stocks with high growth, leading to market high P / E ratio of stock market was overvalued, that it is a reason for low stock returns.
3. Continuous time model
In asset pricing theory is another important assumption: stock market is always in a continuous process, under this assumption, Merton (1969,1971) to develop instantaneous CAPM Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM), the same information symmetry, frictionless market, asset price changes in line with Ito process under these conditions, asset prices and investor preference for independent effectiveness. In subsequent studies Merton (1973) and Black (1973) The application of these continuous-time model has been successful in the option pricing formula, the formula was later confirmed that a large number of empirical studies and has been widely applied in practice.
(B) the uncertainty of financial management in the company of
Financial analysis is another important area of financial management, major research firms in the investment decision-making in the proportion of the debt and equity options, the company's dividend policy and other issues. Results of the first studies in this area by the Modigliani and Miller (1958) made their study shows that full market (no market frictions and asymmetric information exists) the value of the company has nothing to do with the company's debt ratio (MM theorem). A similar study concludes that the value of the company's profit distribution policy has nothing to do. Obviously, these research findings and practical in reality. MM theorem based on the conclusions in the distribution of profits, due to the cash outflow will be sent found Jinhong Li, the Company repurchased shares will be more willing to choose policies, rather than the dividend policy, in reality, many companies prefer to dividends rather than Share buy-back, this phenomenon is Black (1976) referred to as "Company dividend puzzle (Dividend Puzzle)", which Miller (1977) can give the explanation, MM theorem conclusion is that the reason and the reality of different tax and the so-called bankruptcy costs on the financial structure is the result of certain liabilities of the company can achieve the role of tax relief, another company because of the existence of high debt ratio risk of bankruptcy, so the debt ratio to the value of existing shares affected, Miller and Other scholars make on these financial problems are not very satisfactory interpretation of the whole until later after the introduction of asymmetric information, it seems Caidui explain these issues to achieve a breakthrough.
As mentioned above, some of the phenomena of reality is difficult to simply use the uncertainty (risk) to get a satisfactory explanation, it is in the research of these issues raises the question of asymmetric information on financial concerns, plus last 60 years in the 20th century to game theory, represented a breakthrough in the information economy research methods, leading many scholars to the financial problems of asymmetric information in the study achieved a lot, especially the use of asymmetric information can explain a lot of perfectly the financial structure issues. Following is an overview of this still results in two parts, first in the results of financial decision-making, followed by the asset pricing results.
(A) asymmetric information in corporate financial management application
First, WTO accession on China's financial industry the great challenges
China's huge, high-speed growth of financial markets and lack of financial deepening, long-term policy to protect China's financial sector to foreign financial consortium constitute the immense attraction of trying to a good opportunity for China's accession to the WTO to enter China's financial market has been the focus of their efforts direction. The United States Commerce Secretary William Daley said the Sino-US WTO negotiations fell the most crucial questions, such as banking and insurance areas of financial services.
April 9, 1999, the United States Trade Representative Office unilaterally announced the so-called Chinese date for accession to WTO and the United States reached an open market protocol. These measures, according to the United States in China's accession to the WTO that it would begin to implement. In fact, these so-called Protocol of the United States in fact just the asking price, of which only the agricultural part of complete agreement, other not yet fully reached. The United States Trade Representative Office unilaterally announced the so-called China's accession to the WTO after the financial markets, the openness of the list, from which we can see that the United States and China, asking for specific financial services industry may be subject to the impact of the extent of:
(1) Banking
Between the two countries will continue negotiations on this project. However, China has agreed to join WTO, US-owned banks to foreign customers can immediately provide all the foreign exchange business. One year after WTO accession, the United States to the Chinese bank can provide customers with foreign exchange business, Sino-US joint-venture banks will be allowed to operate wholly foreign-owned banks will be allowed to operate at 5 years, foreign banks in two years will be allowed to conduct RMB business at 5 During the year the finance retail business.
(2) the securities industry
At present, the securities, the Chinese will still insist open B-share market, but the A shares should not open. The U.S. side insists that the opening of the stock market. For this requirement, China still insists that financial sector liberalization must be gradual and orderly progress, if we do not do so, it will be further subjected to the crisis in Southeast Asian countries to follow.
(3) the insurance industry
U.S. demands China's accession to the WTO, life insurance companies in the foreign shareholding ratio can be up to 50%, add a year later, increased to 51%. Non-life insurance companies and reinsurance companies will be allowed at a joint venture insurance companies hold 51 percent stake, and at two years to set up wholly-owned branch offices.
With China's accession to the WTO will become the truth, China is striving to provide open financial markets to prepare:
(1) Chinese department director has been fixed for the opening of RMB business timetable. Open RMB business faster than most people probably would exceed expectations, in the "foreseeable future" is very likely at all large and medium-sized city open RMB business.
(2) add at WTO, China will be the first to open RMB business in life insurance and property & casualty insurance market. As capital markets belong to the securities industry, opening up the speed will be relatively slow. March 20, the China Insurance Regulatory Commission Ma Yongwei, chairman, said the opening up of China's insurance market is a foregone conclusion in the near future, there will be a number of foreign insurance companies enter the Chinese market.
(3) foreign banks will be one year after China's accession to the WTO, China allowed to provide foreign exchange business customers, and two years later for the enterprise business to provide renminbi business activity, and after five years for Chinese individuals to provide financial services. People's Bank of China will be lifted this year, foreign banks operating branches geographical restrictions, from the current Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin, Shenzhen and other 23 city extended to all central cities, while the United States formally approved the Shenzhen branch of Citibank, Bank of Tokyo JAPAN Shenzhen sub - Bank to conduct RMB business.
(4) of the securities market, foreign capital eager to enter, but the domestic securities market is not mature enough, and the RMB is not freely convertible, direct foreign investment and opening up is unlikely, in recent years, the China Securities Regulatory Commission once the proposal to examine the formation of Sino-foreign joint investment fund the possibility of us to consider the form of foreign investment funds to enter and take the establishment of Sino-foreign cooperative fund the possibility of greatly.
From the above analysis we can already feel that China's accession to the WTO, China's financial industry by the face of international financial integration of the great challenges:
(1) China's financial industry in the long-term barriers to retaining a high degree of policy evaluation, the WT O to add a high degree of market competition after the situation has required a process of adaptation. Chinese bankers are much, for opening up banking reacted strongly consider in the next five years to completely open up the banking industry, time is very urgent. According to the World Bank has long been known as one pairs of Chinese banking industry experts Radi said that the need for around ten years, China's banking sector in order to prepare, in the face of foreign competition in the industry, and not in danger. First of all, the Chinese banking system has yet to be market-oriented reforms to further deepen, at present, four major Chinese state-owned commercial banks are all the Ministry of Finance, the national bank assets accounted for more than 90% of Shenzhen Development Bank are so far the only listed bank. Secondly, non-performing loans of domestic banks within five years, it is difficult to remove. National plans to discount the portion of the debt or sell securities, but this process may be will need to spend a few years or even longer. Reconstruction of the fragile Chinese banking system is that the Chinese Government to allow foreign financial institutions to gain full access to their markets, while domestic financial crisis will not lead to an important prerequisite.
(2) the financial services sector in our country's industry has been opening sequence in a relatively backward part of the opening of international financial competition environment has a process of adaptation. China's financial industry must be limited to opening up the market to prevent the Asian financial turmoil the price of a repeat in China.
(3) China's financial sector, especially state-owned commercial banks in the past the process of non-market operators have accumulated a lot of non-performing loans, which makes U.S. financial sector competition in the market relatively heavy historical burden.
Second, actively respond to
(1) Expand the financial inspection of assets and liabilities of financial institutions to find out the Chinese Government to further guard against financial risks, as well as opening up financial markets to meet the challenges faced, had started a period of 5 months of a general inspection of national financial work out a comprehensive financial institution's assets and the debt situation. Work focused on financial institutions to check the financial position and its non-performing assets in order to regulators of financial institutions nationwide to find out the true state of debt. This will not only help regulators assess the financial risks effectively, and to take appropriate response measures, the gradual elimination of financial institutions, large non-performing assets.
(2) in an open domestic market before the director of China's financial department to deal with banks to restructure or to inject more funds into the bank to improve the operation and management principles and the rule of law and set up appropriate regulatory framework. Too fast, opening up the financial industry risk is probably much higher than the strength of foreign investment China's domestic financial system, we should fully absorb the lessons of the Asian crisis: liberalization in the financial industry before, we must strictly regulate the domestic financial system, commercial banks are required to have proper access to capital injection and operation and management.
(3) change their concepts, to face up to the international financial integration of great challenge. International financial integration is one of the world inevitable trend of economic development, we are opening up the financial industry overall strategy is unchanged, just add WTO so that the subject had placed earlier in front of us. At the previous monopoly of the soil protection grew up China's financial industry should face up to the international financial integration of the enormous challenges, we must seriously examine their own point whether there is really strong enough to contend with transnational corporations, the core of our competitiveness where扬长up short, a positive response.
一、加入WTO对中国金融业的巨大挑战
中国庞大的、高速增长的金融市场和金融深化不足、长期为政策 保护的中国金融业，对外国金融财团构成了巨大的吸引力，试图通过 中国加入WTO的良机进入中国金融市场一直是它们重点努力的方向。 美国商务部长戴利称，中美入世谈判最关键的问题落在银行和保险等 金融服务领域中。
1999年4月9日，美国贸易代表处单方面公布了所谓中国迄今为加 入WTO与美国达成的市场开放协议。这些措施据美国称将在中国加入 WTO时开始实施。其实这些所谓的协议实际上只是美国的要价，其中 只有农业部分完全达成协议，其他仍未完全达成。美国贸易代表处单 方面公布了所谓中国加入WTO后金融市场开放程度一览表，我们从中 可以看到美国具体的要价和中国金融业可能会受到的冲击程度：
(1)银行业
两国仍继续此项目的谈判。但中国已经同意，加入WTO后，美资 银行可立即向外国客户提供所有外汇业务。加入WTO一年后，美国的 银行可向中国客户提供外汇业务，中美合资的银行将立即获准经营， 外国独资银行将在5年内获准经营，外资银行在二年内将获准经营人 民币业务，在5年内经营金融零售业务。
(2)证券业
目前就证券而言，中国坚持仍然会开放B股市场，但是A股不能开 放。美方则坚持提出开放整个证券市场。对于这个要求，中国仍然坚 持金融部门的开放必须循序渐进，如果不这样作，就将步遭受危机的 东南亚国家后尘。
(3)保险业
美方要求中国加入WTO后，人寿保险公司中外资持股比例可高达 50％，加入一年后，提高至51％。非人寿保险公司和再保险公司将获 准在合资保险公司中持有51％的股份，并可在二年内成立全资的分支 机构。
随着中国加入世贸组织将成事实，中国也正为开放金融市场做好 准备：
(1)中国主管部门已订出开放人民币业务的时间表。人民币业务 开放速度之快可能会超出多数人的预期，在“可见的未来”极有可能 在所有大中城市开放人民币业务。
(2)在加入WTO后，中国将首先开放人民币业务寿险及产险市场。 至于属于资本市场的证券业，开放的速度则会相对较慢。3月20日， 中国保险监督管理委员会主席马永伟表示，中国保险市场的开放大局 已定，在不久的将来，会有多家外国保险公司进入中国市场。
(3)外资银行将在中国加入WTO一年后，获准为中国客户提供外汇 业务，两年后可为企业商务活动提供人民币业务，而五年后可为中国 个人提供金融服务。中国人民银行今年将取消外资银行营业性分支机 构地域限制，从现在的上海、北京、天津、深圳等23个城市扩大到所 有中心城市，同时正式批准美国花旗银行深圳分行、日本东京银行深 圳分行经营人民币业务。
(4)证券市场方面，外资渴望进入，但国内证券市场并不成熟， 而且人民币尚不能自由兑换，直接开放外资进入的可能性不大，近年 来中国证监会曾经提出研究组建中外合作投资基金的可能性，我们认 为以基金的形式吸收外资进入，采取组建中外合作基金形式的可能性 极大。
我们从上述分析中已经可以感受到中国加入WTO后，中国金融业 所面对国际金融一体化的巨大挑战：
(1)中国金融业长期处于高度的政策壁垒护估之下，对于加入WT O后高度的市场竞争形势需要有个适应过程。 中国许多银行业人士，对于对外开放银行业务反应强烈，认为在 五年内彻底开放银行业，时间是十分急迫的。据世界银行一位对中国 银行业素有研究的专家拉迪指出，大约需要十年，中国银行业才能作 好准备，面对国外同业的竞争，而不致于陷入险境。首先，中国银行 业体制的市场化改革仍有待进一步深化，目前，中国四大国有商业银 行属财政部所有，占全国银行资产的90％以上，深圳发展银行是至今 唯一上市的银行。其次，国内银行不良贷款在五年内难以清除。国家 计划将这部分债务以折价或证券化的方式出售，但此过程也许将需花 上数年甚至更长。重建中国脆弱的银行系统，是中国政府允许外国金 融机构完全进入本国市场，而不致引发国内金融危机的重要先决条件 。
(2)金融业在我国的行业对外开放序列中一直处于较后的部分， 对开放后的国际金融竞争环境也有个适应过程。中国金融业必须有限 制地向外开放市场，以防止亚洲金融风暴的代价在中国重演。
(3)中国金融业特别是国有商业银行在过去的非市场经营过程中 累积了不少不良贷款，这使我们的金融业在市场竞争中历史包袱比较 重。
二、积极应对
(1)展开金融大检查，摸清金融机构资产负债 中国政府为进一步防范金融风险，以及迎接金融市场开放所面临 的挑战，已开始展开为期5个月的全国金融大检查工作，全面摸清金 融机构的资产和债务状况。工作重点在于检查金融机构的财务状况及 其不良资产，以便监管机构能摸清全国金融机构债务的真实状况。此 举不仅有助于监管部门能有效评估金融风险，并可采取适当的应对措 施，逐步消除金融机构庞大的不良资产。
(2)在开放国内市场以前，中国金融主管部门应对银行进行重组 或增加注资，改进银行经营管理方针，并建立适当的法治和规范框架 。过快开放金融业的风险在于外资实力可能大大超过中国国内金融体 系，我们应该充分吸取亚洲危机的教训：在金融业自由化前，必须对 国内金融系统严格规范，商业银行必须妥善获得资本金注入及经营管 理。
(3)转变观念，正视国际金融一体化的巨大挑战。国际金融一体 化是世界经济发展的必然趋势，我们金融业的对外开放的总方略是不 变的，加入WTO只是使这一课题提早摆到了我们的面前。以往在垄断 保护的土壤中成长起来的中国金融业应该正视国际金融一体化的巨大 挑战，要认真审视自己究竟有哪一点足以与真正强大的跨国公司抗衡， 我们的核心竞争力在何处，扬长补短，积极应对。
奥巴马麦凯恩激辩金融危机
据《今日美国》报道，在周二的总统辩论中，约翰－麦凯恩和巴拉克－奥巴马互相攻击，并提出了各自的应对美国金融危机的方案。
John McCain andBarack Obama exchanged blame and offered proposals to address the nation'sfinancial crisis during Tuesday's presidential debate, USA Today reported.
麦凯恩承诺对那些苦苦挣扎的房主们施以援手，而奥巴马则表示政府必须确保国家大规模救市方案按计划实施。
McCain promisedaid to struggling homeowners and Obama said the government must assure themassive federal financial rescue package works as planned.
二人辩论的主题很快便集中在经济问题上，当晚辩论主要围绕着这一话题进行。
The debate focusedimmediately on the economy and stayed on it for much of the night.
麦凯恩提议财政部有条件地买进按揭坏债，并根据目前的房价和房主们进行再次协商。
McCain called forthe Treasury Department to buy up troubled mortgages — with some conditions —and renegotiate them with homeowners at the current value of homes.
麦凯恩说：“我们都清楚，只有我们稳定了美国的家庭价值观，我们才能去创造就业机会、恢复我们的经济。
McCain said,"We all know, my friends, until we stabilize home values inAmerica,we're never going to start turning around and creating jobs and fixing oureconomy,
此外，我们还得重建对美国的信任和信心。”
and we've got toget some trust and confidence back toAmerica."
奥巴马称最近的经济低迷为“大萧条后最严重的金融危机”，他表示政府必须确保签署的金融救市方案按计划实施。
Obama called thecurrent downturn "the worst financial crisis since the GreatDepression" and said the government must assure that the financial rescuepackage signed into law worked as planned.
他说：“我相信这将是对过去8年来布什政府高调推行的失败的经济政策的最终审判，而参议员麦凯恩就是这一政策的支持者。”
"I believethis is a final verdict on the failed economic policies of the last eightyears, strongly promoted by President Bush and supported by SenatorMcCain," he said.
辩论开始前几小时，道琼斯工业平均指数又暴跌508点。辩论在一片金融阴霾中展开。
The debate beganhours after the Dow Jones industrial average tumbled another 508 points, andthe resulting financial anxiety is looming large over the debate.
麦凯恩指责奥巴马是参议院中收取房利美和联邦住宅贷款抵押公司捐款的第二大个人，而这两大公司正是目前名誉扫地的抵押贷款行业巨头。
McCain accusedObama of being the Senate's second-highest recipient of donations fromindividuals at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the two now-disgraced mortgageindustry giants.
奥巴马回击称，麦凯恩竞选团队经理戴维斯在华盛顿一家政治公关公司持股，直到最近，该公司每月都从联邦住宅贷款抵押公司收到成千上万的资金。
Obama shot backthat McCain's campaign manager, Rick Davis, has a stake in a Washington lobbying firm that receivedthousands of dollars a month from Freddie Mac until recently.
路透社报道，两位候选人均誓言致力于使美国能源独立。
Both candidatesvowed to focus on making theUnited Statesenergy independent, Reuters reported.
麦凯恩表示，核电是一项无污染能源，也将是解决气候变化的关键。他还对奥巴马进行了嘲讽。
McCain saidnuclear power was a clean source of energy that would be key to battlingclimate change and mocked Obama.
奥巴马支持发展核电，并将其作为一个大能源计划的组成部分。
And Obama said heapproved of nuclear power as one element of a broader energy plan.
美联社报道，辩论话题还涉及外交政策方面，其激烈程度不亚于经济和国内事务。
The debate alsoveered into foreign policy, and the disputes were as intense as on the economyand domestic matters, AP reported.
麦凯恩称他的对手“在伊拉克和进军问题上的观点是错误的。”
McCain said hisrival "was wrong aboutIraqand the surge.
“在俄罗斯侵略格鲁吉亚问题上，他（奥巴马）对俄罗斯的看法是错误的。”
“He was wrong about Russia when theycommitted aggression against Georgia.”
“他的职业生涯很短，他还不了解我们国家在安全问题上所面临的挑战。”
“And in his short career he does notunderstand our national security challenges.”
“而我们没有时间来进行在职培训。”
“We don't have time for on the jobtraining.”
奥巴马略带嘲讽地回击说，他确实不太了解一些事情，例如：多年来美国已经在伊拉克耗费了数千亿美元后，今后，美国要如何面对阿富汗问题的挑战。
Obama counteredwith a trace of sarcasm that he didn't understand some things — like how UScould face the challenge inAfghanistanafter spending years and hundreds of billions of dollars inIraq.
据路透社报道，辩论后哥伦比亚广播公司和美国有线新闻电视网的一项快速调查都显示奥巴马在辩论中胜出。
Two quick pollstaken immediately after the debate, by CBS News and CNN, both judged Obama thewinner, Reuters reported.
路透评论道，麦凯恩可能不会再有扭转竞选局面的机会。
McCain could berunning out of chances to recast the race, Reuters commented.
离大选只有4周的时间，两位候选人将在10月15日进行最终辩论。
With only fourweeks to go until the election, the two candidates will meet for one finaldebate on October 15.
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金融危机激增MBA申请人数
眼下的华尔街可谓哀鸿遍野，而美国各地的商学院却因此振奋不已：全日制MBA课程的申请人数在2008年激增。
Business is bad onWall Street, and business schools across the country are bracing for theimpact: A surge in applications this year to their full-time M.B.A. programs.
金融市场一片混乱，美国经济放缓，华尔街正在经受深刻的结构性变化。很多人决定，现在是回学校充电的好时候。
With financialmarkets in turmoil, the economy slowing down and Wall Street undergoing aprofound structural change, many people are deciding that now is a good time tohead back to school.
考虑迈入校门的人有些是此次金融业大裁员的牺牲品，另一些则觉得他们的饭碗即将不保。
Some would-bestudents are the victim of layoffs roiling the financial industry. Others thinktheir jobs could disappear soon.
即使目前工作还算稳定的MBA申请者也认为，利用这段时间攻读研究生文凭是个不错的选择－－因为未来几年的升迁和跳槽机会都会比较稀缺。
Even someapplicants whose jobs are currently stable are deciding that it makes sense togo for a graduate degree now: since promotions and new opportunities could behard to find in the next few year
商学院还没有关于申请人数的统计数字，因为大多数顶尖学校的第一轮招生截止日期是在10月中旬。不过，许多商学院表示，今年咨询MBA课程的人增加了很多。
Schools don't haveapplication tallies yet -- as deadlines for the first round of admissions arein mid-October for most top-tier schools -- but many already are reporting bigincreases in interest.
纽约大学斯特恩商学院称，今年参加其校外MBA推介会的人员增加了30%。
New YorkUniversity Stern School of Business reports a 30% increase in attendance atoff-site information sessions this year.
西北大学凯洛格管理学院的申请人数目前已增长22%。
NorthwesternUniversityKelloggSchoolof Management has had a 22% increase inapplications so far.
芝加哥大学工商管理研究生院表示，其网上咨询和推介会参加人数都有显著上升。
Universityof Chicago GraduateSchool of Business says it is seeing significant increases ininquiries online and attendance at information sessions.
今年，GMAT考试的注册人数也在增加。
People are alsoregistering for the Graduate Management Admission Test in greater numbers thisyear.
美国研究生入学管理委员会位于弗吉尼亚州McLean市，成员包括165家商学院。
According to theGraduate Management Admission Council, a McLean, Va.-based membershiporganization of 165 graduate business schools,U.S.
该机构称，2008年1至9月GMAT考试的注册人数达到129,902人，比去年同期上升5.1%。
GMAT registrationvolume for the first nine months of this year totaled 129,902, up 5.1% from thesame period last year.
这些数字反映出一种与以往的经济衰退期类似的趋势。
The numbersunderscore a trend that has occurred in previous economic downturns.
商学院和经济学家说，研究生入学人数是反经济周期的，也就是说，它与经济景气程度背道而驰。
Graduateadmissions are countercyclical -- meaning that they move in the oppositedirection of the economic cycle, business schools and economists say.
由于次债风波的连锁反应，这批MBA研究生毕业时，将面对一个完全不同的华尔街，就业市场可能很不乐观。
When this year'sM.B.A. applicants graduate, they will enter a dramatically different WallStreet and potentially smaller job market that has been altered by the rippleeffects of the credit crunch.
今年即将毕业的研究生已经感受到就业市场的低迷。
This year's newlyminted graduates already encountered a tougher job market.
科尔说，在芝加哥大学，2008年毕业生中找到工作或有公司邀请加盟的人数比去年下降了约3个百分点。
At the University of Chicago, the percentage of 2008graduates that either had offers or had already accepted them dropped roughlythree percentage points from the previous year, Ms. Kole says.
一些商学院表示，由于毕业后的就业前景不确定，因此目前有稳定工作的申请者可能会放弃进入商学院的机会。
Indeed, schoolssay not knowing what the job market will look like upon graduation could detersome prospective applicants who have stable jobs from applying.
有些申请者则打算碰碰运气。
Some applicantsare taking their chances.
其他研究生院也都预计申请人数会增加。
Other graduateschools are also expecting increases in applicants.
学员们今年还要考虑另一个问题──次债危机使学生贷款很难申请。
Also a factor forstudents to consider this year: The credit crunch has roiled the market forstudent loans.
一直关注这一领域事态发展的FinAid.org负责人马克-坎特罗维兹称，2007年，有144家民间和政府教育贷款机构暂停了学生贷款。
In the past year,144 education lenders have suspended private and federal loans, according toMark Kantrowitz, publisher of FinAid.org, who has been following thedevelopments.
不过，坎特罗维兹说，商学院的学生应该可以找到贷款，因为很多贷款机构只是对本科生和成人教育学生暂停发放贷款。
Still, Mr.Kantrowitz says business-school students should be able to find loans. Manylenders, he says, have suspended loans for undergraduate and continuingeducation students but not graduate loans
对这些贷款机构来说，“研究生贷款项目是最有利可图的，因为贷款质量最高。”
For lenders,'graduate student loans are the most profitable because the loan balances arethe highest,' he says.
然而，学生要想获得私人贷款，可能需要提供更多的信用证明，而且贷款利率也会上升。
But students mayface tighter credit requirements in getting private loans and pay higherinterest rates.
楼主，您好。好的翻译画龙点睛，让人眼前一亮。看得出您很有诚意寻求广大网友的协助，楼主虽然谦虚地说自己英语不好，但相信您是绝对可以判断一个翻译的好与否。
首先，我对您所提供的专业词汇翻译作两个小小的修正，或者叫做完善。
证券市场 security market
套期保值 hedging for value protection purposes
翻译如下：
In simplified forms, the Stock Index Future is called Index Future or SIF. The Stock Index Future (SIF) is a kind of financial future product which uses the stock exchange pricing index as the trading object. It is one of the most important and successful financial derivative instruments since the 1980s – the refreshing new financial era. It is also a financial derivative product that has the shortest history in financial futures, but developing with the fastest moving speed. In our country, the scale of security markets has been expanding and the important role of such has been increasing in the community and economy life, all in a continuing trend. The demand for SIF for hedging, for the purposes of value protection, has been soaring.
Moreover, following China's entry into the World Trade Organisation (WTO), the opening level of the capital market has continuously gone through new heights. There are increasingly serious calls for the launch of SIF products. This article covers the definition and development history of Stock Index Future. Points covered in details also include the urgency for China to relaunch the SIF, the significance of SIF for the Chinese capital market, and certain prevailing obstacles against the launching of SIF.
几点说明：
这篇短短的摘要，多次出现“越来越高”、“不断提高”等，为免文风沉闷，翻译的时候需要避免过多使用increase一词。
Soaring （原型soar）是暴涨或急速增长之意，可以用于形容需求（尤其是金融财经领域）。
There are increasingly serious calls for the launch of SIF products. 是“开设股指期货的呼声越来越强烈”。Calls 是呼声，serious 是形容市场上非常认真的或者急不急待的（呼声）。都是地道英语中金融类文章的惯常用法。
“资本市场开放的程度越来越高”我采用了意译the opening level of the capital market has continuously gone through new heights（资本市场的开放程度不断冲破新的高度），这既是为了打破沉闷的文风，也是避免反复地使用单一的increase这个词。
