关于外汇的论文参考文献

三、对实证结果的分析从我国货币供给机制来看，目前我国基础货币的投放主要通过4条渠道：一是对金融机构的再贴现和再贷款；二是外汇占款；三是对财政贷款或透支；四是央行的直接贷款。我国近年来连续呈现国际收支顺差，外汇储备规模不断增加，使外汇占款逐渐成为基础货币投放的主要渠道，这一点可从1995年汇率改革以后我国外汇占款占基础货币的比重可以看出，如表4所示。我国外汇储备一直处于较快的增长状态，究其原因，一方面，这和我国企业的结售汇制度有密切关系。根据我国结售汇制度规定，企业超过限额的外汇收入必须在45天内进行结汇，而用汇时须从银行购买。对于外汇指定的银行也只能持有额定的外汇，多余或不足的部分通过银行间外汇市场买卖，最终必须归结于人民银行。所以外汇市场并没有体现真正的需求关系，而是由人民银行以人民币完全吸收外汇市场上的差额，这正是导致我国外汇储备高速膨胀的重要原因；另一方面，我国经常项目收支和资本项目收支的持续双顺差，使得外汇市场上外汇供给大于需求，人民币面临巨大的升值压力，这使得民间的外汇储蓄颇为动荡。在2005年7月21日我国宣布汇率制度改革之后，人民币的小幅升值更是引起了民间外汇储蓄和存款的大量兑换，为了维持人民币汇率的稳定，推进汇率制度的平稳改革，人民银行只能买进剩余的外汇，抛出相应的人民币，从而导致基础货币的进一步扩展。外汇储备的增加必然带来外汇占款的增加，不断增加的外汇占款形成了基础货币的内生性增长，央行被迫投放基础货币。如果此时人民银行不采取冲销的政策，并且在国内信贷不变的情况下，基础货币的增加，通过货币乘数效应的作用，国内货币供应量将会增加。公众手中持有的货币量将大于他们对货币需求的量，如果超额的货币供给冲向商品市场，商品的需求将会增加，进而推动物价水平上升。但是事实上，我国外汇储备近年来持续、大幅增长，物价却没有出现暴涨，究其原因主要有：(1)我国正处于计划经济向市场经济转轨的过程中，经济活动不可避免地带有计划经济色彩，外汇储备和国内信贷规模都是影响基础货币供应量的因素。中央银行可以通过一手抓外汇储备、一手抓本币来调控国内的基础货币。在我国还是有管理浮动汇率的情况下，我国外汇储备增加能否对国内通货膨胀形成现实压力，还取决于中央银行实行的国内信贷政策。当国内经济有通胀的苗头，央行就收紧信贷，因此，外汇储备对通货膨胀的影响被有意无意地弱化。(2)外汇储备的增加不一定导致外汇占款的增加。除国际收支顺差外，外汇储备的增加还有另外两个渠道：来自国际金融机构、外国政府借款和储备的收益。向国际金融机构或外国政府借入的外汇增加的储备并不增加外汇占款，也不增加基础货币。来自储备收益的外汇储备增加同样也不增加外汇占款，进而不增加基础货币投放。在我国的外汇储备增量中，外汇储备收益部分比重不高，但是，这种渠道的存在，也在一定程度上削弱了外汇储备增加对通货膨胀的影响。(3)中央银行可以通过干预基础货币和货币乘数减弱外汇占款对货币投放的影响。中央银行调整基础货币结构是通过调整其资产业务投放基础货币的，在外汇储备增加的同时，央行通过减少对金融机构、政府及非金融机构的债权来抵消外汇储备增长对货币投放的压力，通过发行中央银行票据等方式回笼货币。也可以通过影响货币乘数影响货币供给，比如中央银行可以通过调整法定存款准备金影响货币乘数进而影响货币供给。由于我国利率还没有实现完全意义上的市场化，资本项目还没有完全开放，因而利率与资本项目之间的传导机制受阻，这在一定程度上也减弱外汇储备增加对通货膨胀的影响。总之，外汇储备的变动会影响我国的物价水平的变动，两者之间呈现正相关关系。从实证分析结果看到，作用系数只有0.023896。但是，外汇储备对物价指数的影响不可忽视。这是由于我国外汇储备的变动幅度非常大，从2001年1月的1561亿美元增长到 2006年6月的9411.15亿美元，增长了5倍多，而同期国内信贷和GDP仅增长一倍多。随着我国经济体制改革的深入，经济体制的市场化改革也疏通了外汇储备通过影响货币供应量进而影响物价的渠道。因而，外汇储备对通货膨胀指标的影响也会日益显现出来。参考文献[1]刘荣茂，黎开颜.我国外汇储备对通货膨胀影响的实证分析[J].北京：中国农业大学学报，2005，(1).[2]封建强，袁林.我国外汇储备增长与物价波动研究[J].北京：经济科学，2000，(6).[3]戴根有.我国的外汇储备与通货膨胀[J].北京：战略与管理，1995，(5).[4]闫先东，冯克然.通货膨胀——国际收支角度的考察[J].北京：财贸经济，1997，(4).[5]谢平，张晓朴.货币政策与汇率政策的三次冲突：1994—2000年中国的实证分析[J].北京：国际经济评论，2002，(3).[6]邵学言，郝雁.对中国外汇储备与物价指数之间数量关系的研究——基于货币供求角度的实证分析[J].北京：经济学动态， 2004，(6).

Exchange rateIn finance, the exchange rates (also known as the foreign-exchange rate, forex rate or FX rate) between two currencies specifies how much one currency is worth in terms of the other. For example an exchange rate of 102 Japanese yen (JPY, ¥) to the United States dollar (USD, $) means that JPY 102 is worth the same as USD 1. The foreign exchange market is one of the largest markets in the world. By some estimates, about 2 trillion USD worth of currency changes hands every day.The spot exchange rate refers to the current exchange rate. The forward exchange rate refers to an exchange rate that is quoted and traded today but for delivery and payment on a specific future date.QuotationsAn exchange rate quotation is given by stating the number of units of "term currency" or "price currency" that can be bought in terms of 1 unit currency (also called base currency). For example, in a quotation that says the EURUSD exchange rate is 1.3 (1.3 USD per EUR), the term currency is USD and the base currency is EUR.There is a market convention that determines which is the base currency and which is the term currency. In most parts of the world, the order is:EUR - GBP - AUD - USD - *** (where *** is any other currency).Thus if you are doing a conversion from EUR into AUD, EUR is the base currency, AUD is the term currency and the exchange rate tells you how many Australian dollars you would pay or receive for 1 euro. Cyprus and Malta which were quoted as the base to the USD and *** were recently removed from this list when they joined the euro. In some areas of Europe and in the non-professional market in the UK, EUR and GBP are reversed so that GBP is quoted as the base currency to the euro. In order to determine which is the base currency where both currencies are not listed (i.e. both are ***), market convention is to use the base currency which gives an exchange rate greater than 1.000. This avoids rounding issues and exchange rates being quoted to more than 4 decimal places. There are some exceptions to this rule e.g. the Japanese often quote their currency as the base to other currencies.Quotes using a country's home currency as the price currency (e.g., EUR 1.00 = $1.45 in the US) are known as direct quotation or price quotation (from that country's perspective) ([1]) and are used by most countries.Quotes using a country's home currency as the unit currency (e.g., £0.4762 = $1.00 in the US) are known as indirect quotation or quantity quotation and are used in British newspapers and are also common in Australia, New Zealand and the eurozone.direct quotation: 1 foreign currency unit = x home currency units indirect quotation: 1 home currency unit = x foreign currency units Note that, using direct quotation, if the home currency is strengthening (i.e., appreciating, or becoming more valuable) then the exchange rate number decreases. Conversely if the foreign currency is strengthening, the exchange rate number increases and the home currency is depreciating.When looking at a currency pair such as EURUSD, the first component (EUR in this case) will be called the base currency. The second is called the term currency. For example : EURUSD = 1.33866, means EUR is the base and USD the term, so 1 EUR = 1.33866 USD.Currency pairs are often incorrectly quoted with a "/" (forward slash). In fact if the slash is inserted, the order of the currencies should be reversed. This gives the exchange rate. e.g. if EUR1 is worth USD1.35, euro is the base currency and dollar is the term currency so the exchange rate is stated EURUSD or USD/EUR. To get the exchange rate divide the USD amount by the euro amount e.g. 1.35/1.00 = 1.35Market convention from the early 1980s to 2006 was that most currency pairs were quoted to 4 decimal places for spot transactions and up to 6 decimal places for forward outrights or swaps. (The fourth decimal place is usually referred to as a "pip.") An exception to this was exchange rates with a value of less than 1.000 which were usually quoted to 5 or 6 decimal places. Although there is no fixed rule, exchange rates with a value greater than around 20 were usually quoted to 3 decimal places and currencies with a value greater than 80 were quoted to 2 decimal places. Currencies over 5000 were usually quoted with no decimal places (e.g. the former Turkish Lira). e.g. (GBPOMR : 0.765432 - EURUSD : 1.3386 - GBPBEF : 58.234 - EURJPY : 165.29). In other words, quotes are given with 5 digits. Where rates are below 1, quotes frequently include 5 decimal places.In 2006 Barclays Capital broke with convention by offering spot exchange rates with 5 or 6 decimal places. The contraction of spreads (the difference between the bid and offer rates) arguably necessitated finer pricing and gave the banks the ability to try and win transaction on multibank trading platforms where all banks may otherwise have been quoting the same price. A number of other banks have now followed this.Free or peggedMain article: Exchange rate regimeIf a currency is free-floating, its exchange rate is allowed to vary against that of other currencies and is determined by the market forces of supply and demand. Exchange rates for such currencies are likely to change almost constantly as quoted on financial markets, mainly by banks, around the world. A movable or adjustable peg system is a system of fixed exchange rates, but with a provision for the devaluation of a currency. For example, between 1994 and 2005, the Chinese yuan renminbi (RMB) was pegged to the United States dollar at RMB 8.2768 to $1. China was not the only country to do this; from the end of World War II until 1966, Western European countries all maintained fixed exchange rates with the US dollar based on the Bretton Woods system. [2]Nominal and real exchange ratesThe nominal exchange rate e is the price in domestic currency of one unit of a foreign currency. The real exchange rate (RER) is defined as , where P is the domestic price level and P * the foreign price level. P and P * must have the same arbitrary value in some chosen base year. Hence in the base year, RER = e. The RER is only a theoretical ideal. In practice, there are many foreign currencies and price level values to take into consideration. Correspondingly, the model calculations become increasingly more complex. Furthermore, the model is based on purchasing power parity (PPP), which implies a constant RER. The empirical determination of a constant RER value could never be realised, due to limitations on data collection. PPP would imply that the RER is the rate at which an organization can trade goods and services of one economy (e.g. country) for those of another. For example, if the price of a good increases 10% in the UK, and the Japanese currency simultaneously appreciates 10% against the UK currency, then the price of the good remains constant for someone in Japan. The people in the UK, however, would still have to deal with the 10% increase in domestic prices. It is also worth mentioning that government-enacted tariffs can affect the actual rate of exchange, helping to reduce price pressures. PPP appears to hold only in the long term (3–5 years) when prices eventually correct towards parity.More recent approaches in modelling the RER employ a set of macroeconomic variables, such as relative productivity and the real interest rate differential.Bilateral vs effective exchange rateBilateral exchange rate involves a currency pair, while effective exchange rate is weighted average of a basket of foreign currencies, and it can be viewed as an overall measure of the country's external competitiveness. A nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) is weighted with trade weights. a real effective exchange rate (REER) adjust NEER by appropriate foreign price level and deflates by the home country price level. Compared to NEER, a GDP weighted effective exchange rate might be more appropriate considering the global investment phenomenon.Uncovered interest rate paritySee also: Interest rate parity#Uncovered interest rate parity Uncovered interest rate parity (UIRP) states that an appreciation or depreciation of one currency against another currency might be neutralized by a change in the interest rate differential. If US interest rates exceed Japanese interest rates then the US dollar should depreciate against the Japanese yen by an amount that prevents arbitrage. The future exchange rate is reflected into the forward exchange rate stated today. In our example, the forward exchange rate of the dollar is said to be at a discount because it buys fewer Japanese yen in the forward rate than it does in the spot rate. The yen is said to be at a premium.UIRP showed no proof of working after 1990s. Contrary to the theory, currencies with high interest rates characteristically appreciated rather than depreciated on the reward of the containment of inflation and a higher-yielding currency.Balance of payments modelThis model holds that a foreign exchange rate must be at its equilibrium level - the rate which produces a stable current account balance. A nation with a trade deficit will experience reduction in its foreign exchange reserves which ultimately lowers (depreciates) the value of its currency. The cheaper currency renders the nation's goods (exports) more affordable in the global market place while making imports more expensive. After an intermediate period, imports are forced down and exports rise, thus stabilizing the trade balance and the currency towards equilibrium.Like PPP, the balance of payments model focuses largely on tradable goods and services, ignoring the increasing role of global capital flows. In other words, money is not only chasing goods and services, but to a larger extent, financial assets such as stocks and bonds. Their flows go into the capital account item of the balance of payments, thus, balancing the deficit in the current account. The increase in capital flows has given rise to the asset market model.Asset market modelSee also: Capital asset pricing model The explosion in trading of financial assets (stocks and bonds) has reshaped the way analysts and traders look at currencies. Economic variables such as economic growth, inflation and productivity are no longer the only drivers of currency movements. The proportion of foreign exchange transactions stemming from cross border-trading of financial assets has dwarfed the extent of currency transactions generated from trading in goods and services.The asset market approach views currencies as asset prices traded in an efficient financial market. Consequently, currencies are increasingly demonstrating a strong correlation with other markets, particularly equities.Like the stock exchange, money can be made or lost on the foreign exchange market by investors and speculators buying and selling at the right times. Currencies can be traded at spot and foreign exchange options markets. The spot market represents current exchange rates, whereas options are derivatives of exchange rates.Fluctuations in exchange ratesA market based exchange rate will change whenever the values of either of the two component currencies change. A currency will tend to become more valuable whenever demand for it is greater than the available supply. It will become less valuable whenever demand is less than available supply (this does not mean people no longer want money, it just means they prefer holding their wealth in some other form, possibly another currency).Increased demand for a currency is due to either an increased transaction demand for money, or an increased speculative demand for money. The transaction demand for money is highly correlated to the country's level of business activity, gross domestic product (GDP), and employment levels. The more people there are unemployed, the less the public as a whole will spend on goods and services. Central banks typically have little difficulty adjusting the available money supply to accommodate changes in the demand for money due to business transactions.The speculative demand for money is much harder for a central bank to accommodate but they try to do this by adjusting interest rates. An investor may choose to buy a currency if the return (that is the interest rate) is high enough. The higher a country's interest rates, the greater the demand for that currency. It has been argued that currency speculation can undermine real economic growth, in particular since large currency speculators may deliberately create downward pressure on a currency in order to force that central bank to sell their currency to keep it stable (once this happens, the speculator can buy the currency back from the bank at a lower price, close out their position, and thereby take a profit).In choosing what type of asset to is officially pegged, synthetic markets have emerged that can behave as if the yuan were floating).汇率在经济学上，汇率定义为两国货币之间兑换的比例。通常会将某一国的货币设为基准，以此换算金额价值他国几元的货币。在英文使用方面，有时简写为FX，此为外国货币Foreign Exchange的简写。通俗的说，是一国货币单位兑换他国货币单位的比率，也可以说是用一国货币表示的另一国货币的价格。汇率的特性在于它多半是浮动的比率。只要货币能够透过汇率自由交换，依交换量的多寡，就会影响隔天的汇率，因此，有人也以赚汇差营利，今日以较低的比率购进某一外币，隔日等到较高的比率出现时，再转手卖出。所以有时汇率也能看出一个国家的经济状况。了解外汇也能看出这个国家的出口贸易状况。交叉汇率所谓交叉汇率是指两种不同货币之间的价格关系，两个国家之间的货币汇兑是利用各自对美元的汇率套算得出。举例来看，若一美元可分别兑换0.8112欧元、109.28日圆，则欧元兑日圆的交叉汇率为134.71（= 109.28/0.8112）。

这个要求非常专业，而且要有国外的操作经历。对各个国家的发展前瞻性。非常难。。

我也是这个题。。。同求。。。